JamesHelliwell

JamesHelliwell

Learn with the Lex van Dam Trading Academy on TradingView! www.tradingview.com Featured in our AUGUST Trading Club Our checklist provides a systematic process that fellow hedge fund managers and traders employ to analyse markets, from which the biggest trading decisions are made. We use similar versions to analyse major currencies, stock markets and other...

JamesHelliwell

Long Gilead, hedged with Amgen short (negative short term momentum).

JamesHelliwell

Learn with the Lex van Dam Trading Academy on TradingView! www.tradingview.com Featured in our Trading Club, 4th July Our checklist provides a systematic process that fellow hedge fund managers and traders employ to analyse markets, from which the biggest trading decisions are made. We use similar versions to analyse major currencies, stock markets and...

JamesHelliwell

Marathon Oil Corp. $11.31 July 13th 2017 Energy has underperformed the S&P 500 by -21% year-to-date. Marathon is down -35% and trades at a 22% discount to tangible book value, despite being relatively well positioned to withstand lower crude oil prices (figure 1). At 6.2x EV/EBITA (9.0x sector average), there are signs that patient investors will be...

JamesHelliwell

Long GBPUSD targeting 1.3640 Having remained short GBPUSD since the brexit vote June 24th (see linked), now could be the time to close shorts and consider a long position in the pound. Speculative positioning is extremely bearish and has increased to record highs in recent weeks With sterling effectively pricing recession, rate cuts having already taken...

JamesHelliwell Updated 

Negative divergence in momentum indicators including the RSI shouldn't be ignored by longs in the overcrowded Silver trade. Silver currently trading around 20.20 Selling has been seen 50 cents higher around 20.70 over the past month Support levels: 19.09 (38%), 17.83 (62%), 16.94 (78%) Resistance level: 21.12 (high pivot) Downside target: $18 ...

JamesHelliwell

If the yen continues to strengthen beyond 100 per dollar, gold will make new highs. US Yields fail to hold higher USDJPY is at a critical support level around 100 which looks likely to break DXY appears to be headed south initially towards the brexit 61.8% retracement level at 94.76, and possibly 94 Gold will rally under any such scenario, yet it...

JamesHelliwell Updated 

A Fund Manager Survey today showed that investors are net underweight European equities for the first time since pretty much the European debt crisis of 2012. With positioning at 3 year bearish extremes and cash positions the highest since November 2001, fear of a new European crisis and a post-brexit fallout appear to be heavily discounted in the price of...

JamesHelliwell

Long Russell 1000 Value / Short Russell 1000 Growth In a market with declining corporate profits and a stagnant real disposable incomes, growth is scarce. However, with bond yields indiscriminately driving equity valuations towards records across nearly all sectors (both cyclical and non-cyclical) value is even more scarce, and becoming scarcer as multiple...

JamesHelliwell

The Yen is set to strengthen to 95 per dollar on a break below 100 USDJPY failed to find buyers around 103 Closed below the 102.85 (62%) retracement level on Friday on heavy selling (large macro fund driven) A test of 99.98 now looks likely and momentum favours a break to the downside If this level holds then a 'right shoulder' could form around...

JamesHelliwell Updated 

Crude oil is the only chart that matters again. Momentum is currently to the downside, below the 200d moving average having sold off from $50 in early June The first key support level is near at 41.88 (38.2% retracement of the Feb '16 - June '16 rally) Should this fail, the next major support level is 35.84 (61.8% retracement of the Feb '16 - June...

JamesHelliwell

Related to the reflation theme described in my view "Crude Oil: The Most Important Chart in the World". European banks trade at a 60% discount to the market (only seen during crises of 2008 and 2012) and represent a 'value' play amidst the prospect of higher rates resulting from the reflation theme. European stocks also trade at 'crisis lows' versus...

JamesHelliwell

Related to the reflation theme described in my view "Crude Oil: The Most Important Chart in the World". Silver is has been consolidating whilst showing relative strength versus gold. Having broken above a downward sloping trendline from the $21.11 high set 4th July, speculators appear to be positioning for further dovishness from the Fed later today. Assuming...

JamesHelliwell

Related to the reflation theme described in my view "Crude Oil: The Most Important Chart in the World". This trade relates to a steepening of the US yield curve as rates adjust upwards through either rising inflation or a pickup in US growth (or both) having been driven to a record low in June. BKX Index (candles) BKX / SPX (blue) US10Y (grey) What is...

JamesHelliwell

The Yen has strengthened overnight to 104.12, exceeding my initial downside target of 104.63 following the rise above 107.20 last week (107.49 intraday high) With the Fed and BoJ conducting their policy meetings Wednesday and Friday of this week respectively, technical levels are likely to be honoured in the meantime. USDJPY currently trades at the 38.2%...

JamesHelliwell Updated 

Despite broad dollar buying, the Yen looks unlikely to see much further upside above 107.20 this week. With this said, keep an eye on a close either side of 106.65 which provides a longer term bias (2011-2016 32% retracement level). Two consecutive daily closes, or one weekly close above this level would indicate the start of a sustained uptrend in USDJPY. ...

JamesHelliwell Updated 

UK Property REITS including Derwent (DLN) have today closed above their 38% retracement levels following brexit. Having been long DLN from 2400 on 7th July, this provides a bullish signal indicating that resistance has been successfully broken (following a week's worth of testing) and that price should rally towards 3019 in the next few weeks. Should we see a...

JamesHelliwell Updated 

Sterling remains weak and has just broken the neckline of a bearish head & shoulders formation on the 4 hour chart. Caution is advised (see my linked post) with regards to the risk of a short squeeze perpetuated by UK labour and retail sales data this week. It would be prudent to operate a stop on-close rather than at-level given the likely volatility around...