It looks like the Bond market hasn't priced in growth or we're going to see a nasty reversion trade in the materials sector and a bond pop. The Copper / Gold pair is a great proxy for inflation due to the divergent properties of the 2 metals. Copper is purely an industrial metal and a proxy for inflationary growth so the 10yr reacts correspondingly. Gold, on...
The TNX is currently correcting the 93.43% up move in the mid of 2016. To make long story short, we want to buy tnx at around 1.99% IF it can manage to break the current low at around 2.17%. Consequently, with a break of the low of 2.17% and TNX reaching 1.99% we believe that the correction in the indices or not over yet. So in case of a leg lower in TNX we...
RSI making lower highs, yield making lower lows.
Multiple red flags appearing on the horizon. 1. VIX has taken off while SPX is still pretty much range bound. It means investors are increasingly getting jittery about the elevated equities even though the equities haven't corrected as much. Any small trigger could possibly initiate accelerated fall in this scenario. 2. US 10Y yields (not shown here) are down to...
treasuries and bonds not acting inline with main markets.... expecting further downside on u.j so will be actively looking for positions alongside the imminent breakout we are witnessing in gold. 1250.xx was the key to pandoras box and 1320.xx, congratulations to those who took this trade and are still holding. Eyes on the trigger to set things off here.
Please someone explain why the 10yr note yield TNX goes down after FOMC raises interest rates? I would expect the relationship between the two to be pretty much linear.
This is why the stock market has not crashed all this time since 2007-2008.
Textbook consolidation as we wait for more signals from the FOMC. Fed futures showing no hike in March but two hikes by December, expect another leg up once subsequent meetings start pricing in. Good time to scale in.
we will reach zero and gold will fly but for now bet the farm on shorting gold and buy bonds is maybe early. if we touch the blue line i think it wll be a good place to try it
Attn: Chart is in Log Scale. A quick analysis of long term market outlook with historical context since 1970's. Not all recessions are covered, only those with -30% or more drop. For additional references, I have included the TVC:TNX (Blue Line) and FFR (Black Line).
Today we got further confirmation of a golden-cross with gold, and even though we had a slight hiccup intra-day spurred by a USD bond sale, we closed above 1240 and made new highs for this run. TNX is struggling to maintain above water, and it's RSI has been trending down since it's run up in November. We could potentially see a death cross as it's 5EMA makes...
The DJI and SPX have been picture of clam for last month or so. But other markets are giving some very interesting cues. We could be in for some very interesting movements in a week's time when the Trump inauguration happens. All the details around this would make this post very long. I have the detailed rationale posted at trade-360.com
This chart provides probable market behavior given current market behavior, interest rates, and other factors such as presidential elections. www.tradingview.com I am expecting a down turn during the next week which would last until late February and another leg up in SPX until the final move down in August 2017. Trend line colors mark the same conditions...