Like TYX, Im not saying that rates are going up, BUT in the short term (next weeks) the yellow line at 1,87 is a nice place for TNX to bounce to 2,15... then we are going down to 1,70 and I think that this one is not going to hold and we are going to make new lows, below 1,40... But we can make money in the next weeks from here to 2,15
Looks like it is living in the blue triangle now and may get push down even further. As long as the blue resistance holds, long bond should be fine. A breakout will change the game though I do not expect that to happen any time soon given last week's Fed minutes.
The last 3 market cycles have something in common - they all seem to last for about 7 years with a rising trend for the first 5 years and a consecutive decline for the next 2. Irrational exuberance or?... Some arguments for reflection follow: 1) rising USD would/should hurt U.S. equity earnings in near term. If innovation does not negate the effect of rising...
This chart studies spread between 30 year and 10 year treasury yield, and its correlation with SPY top. In 2000 and 2007, breakout of this spread marked the top of the market. So can this time be different? Let's wait until it breaks out (if ever) and then we will know.
The purpose of this chart is to amuse you :-) Who can see that far into the future anyway. Past instances show that dollar breakout can last 4 to 5 years, bullish for stock, bearish for gold and interest rate, neutral for oil.
Major markets in one chart. Will update again next Friday before market close.
Fed meeting is coming up and it is expected to end QE 3. This chart has four major asset classes all in one, and showed risk-off period from 10/3 to 10/15 and risk-on period from 10/15 to date. as of today, the chart seems to suggest a new period of risk-off may be emerging. If it can play out that way, stock and dollar may get hammered and treasury and gold...
As of market close today (Friday), TLT broke out and TNX (10 year rate) broke down.
10 year rate is meeting double resistance. A breakout may lead to 2.8 region and a break down may lead to 2.1.
Friends, As twitted yesterday (See: "$TNX reached forecast support last month; now threatens loftier rally - Watch $USDJPY" here: twitter.com), a discreet break of overhead resistance indicated a potential rallying to new highs. This comment concerned a simple analysis of the benchmark 10-Year US government bond ($TNX) relative to the current positively...
Friends, This past April 15, 2014, I offered a relatively imminent value where the benchmark 10-Year treasuries would possibly reverse and start a new upward trajectory. In this new chart, I would like to offer mitigating views from Fibonacci values, Elliott Wave counts, and an predictive analysis, each standing in contrast to one another, and offering lower...
Been following this chart for a while, as a possible healthy/sick performance indicator for stocks. The SPY/TNX ratio is diverging for the last two years now, and If I read correctly this chart, it's not stocks healthy for sure. Of course can be diverging for ages or even centuries in this economic recovery miracle we all live in, until already built in energy...
This chart tries to demo gold price, dollar and interest rate can go same direction at times. So rising dollar and rising rate do not necessarily mean lower gold price (but most of the time, yes).
Friends, I just posted a (truncated) overview of metals, Forex and commented on the probable increase in benchmark TNX - See broad analysis and forecasting in Gold, Silver, Copper, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF here: - In essence, fundamentals are pressuring the 10-year treasuries upwards, and the predictive analysis and forecasting has defined the following two...