In daily and 4 hours charts, i see a bearish divergence in awesome oscillator and the bullish impulse ended. It´s possible that TNX changes the trend.
This idea supports the previous interest rate outlook. I advise you to book profits on the idea given last September (see related) earlier than set target at 116'07 and this is why: The long-term trend together with the previous low offers strong support for the price and could reject the drop in the 117-118 area. In this area the wave C = 1.272 of wave A and this...
Should move to 3.32 which is a measured move from the initial bullish drive from the Brexit low.
30 year represents long term growth expectations, the 10 year has already broken out as linked below. This down trend is not as clean of a break as that one and will need a continuation after today's test the of February highs. 10s 2s spread hit ~39bps recently now at 49bps. If we get a confirmation the first target is 3.74 as a measured move which happens...
Real estate broke through the 50 MA and with the rising interest rates and the central banks starting to sell their MBS then this market will plummet soon.
The reason rate drop provide a low risk short entry of LT treasury after a retest at the neckline resistance.
Typically I have seen that when everyone is on one side of the trade its quite easy for the market to make fools of the participants. The speculative short position on US treasuries, specifically the 10 year, is massive (and for good reason). While I remain a longer bear view on these treasuries I think we might end up seeing a short squeeze before we see 3%...
This chart shows the ML investment grade corporate bond index yield vs the trailing SPX earnings yield (E/P ratio). From 2004-2007 the investment grade bond index and SPX earnings yield appear balanced near equal valuation. The red box from 2007 to 2009 marks the peak of the market to 2009 when the SPX sunk to recession lows. Note the following period of QE when...
TLT treasury bonds are at a huge support, potentially forming a massive top... A break below the neckline would possibly have huge bearish implications.
$NDX and $SPX seem on a breakdown path prior to FOMC March 20th 2018 (and $VIX a breakout). There are bearish divs and TNX seems on a path to hit 2.9 by March 19th. Is this all just a manufactured move by market makers and shakers for OPEX week - the main market action feels as 'real' in price action as crypto has recently.
At the end of last September I called for the drop in the 10-year US T-notes with quite aggressive target (see related idea). In this and the next update I came to the thought that the drop could be over earlier as rates are reaching important resistance level. Despite the aggressive tone on the rate rise in US, I think the upside is limited based on this...
Low interest rates. With more ghost malls, more shuttering/cutting back of corporate stores (Sears, Macy's, Old Navy, etc.), with wages down, real-estate up (not for long), food inflation up/serving sizes of containers smaller (shrinkflation)... I hope interest rates aren't bumped up (home loans/car loans/credit card rates). The stock market will dive soon I...
TEN year T Note: TNX The Super Long-Trem Trend in Rates - Right Side/Wrong Side Ms Yellen is scarred by her being accused of messing up the markets in mid 2015 and causing a 6 month 21% decline (nothing to do with her in fact, it was more to do with Nasdaq double topping in mid 2015 at the old 2000 cycle high - exactly same time from high in 2000 to the high...
Le taux des obligations US à 10 ans est en chute depuis 1981. Va-t-on assister enfin à une hausse à long terme? Il semblerait que oui! After 36 years, the TNX is going to change direction! -