What a turnaround for ALL the MAJOR averages! As we've been saying over and over again....... The END OF DAY IS WHAT MATTERS!!! *Indices formed an OUTSIDE DAY* Outside days can signify 2 things: CONTINUATION OR REVERSAL (of the current trend) Being that the day ended lower, LIGHT VOLUME though, we will take this as a WARNING!!!!!!! RSI fell pretty hard,...
JUST SAYING....... NOT implying that the party is over BUT heed some signs by treasury. 1Yr #yield is fighting to close above the 10day Mov Avg (RED). 2 Yr has a possible 3rd day trading above the RED Mov Avg. 10Yr fighting to get above the recent trend it broke & Moving Avg's. US #Dollar has been fighting & looks to be gaining momentum. We'll see how this does...
THOSE LONG TERM TRENDS ARE IMPORTANT. Remember how the 10 & 30 Yr #yield BROKE daily trends? Well, they are both still in play, for TVC:TNX it is in better shape. Let's see how they close. 30 Yr struggling a bit more to recover that close under the trend. #mortgage rates have also fallen decently.
Have you ever encountered the notion that less can be more? Well, that's precisely why it has taken me considerable time to present this update concept regarding Bond Yields. This analysis carries profound implications for every global market. What we're witnessing here holds the potential to trigger the most significant economic downturn in our lifetime—the...
Gold is up an even 10% year to date. The precious metal has frustrated bulls at times in 2023 but falling real interest rates over the past several weeks have undoubtedly been a boon. While it’s encouraging to see spot gold climb above the $2000 per ounce mark, I see potential upside in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Notice in the chart that the portfolio of...
GOOD MORNING! Didn't have time to post yesterday. Busy the entire day until I got home @ 9pm!\ 10 Yr #yield topped the day the original tweet was posted. 30 Yr yield topped the following day! #stocks #bonds TVC:TNX (See profile for more info)
GOOD MORNING! #interestrates look like they want to slow down a bit, short term top. We see the 10Y & 30Y pulling back a bit... But this is better seen intraday. We'll see how that unfolds... IF IT DOES, it could cause a sharp rise in #Stocks. Coincidentally, DJ:DJI @ support & TVC:NDQ is near a major support. TVC:TNX AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:QQQ
What Major Event will occur to force thirst for US and G20 Treasury Bonds? It's happening soon. I wish I had a crystal ball to say what will cause it, but it'll happen. We're almost there IMO 5.19-5.25% topline target - then I hope in whatever this Market or world event will force yields to go back down to 3.19-3.25% Before eventually continuing back up in the...
TBT is a UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF. This Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the Daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. 1. Always look first. Never rush into a trade or investment blindly. 2. Wait, and wait again, for the pattern to develop. 3. Be patient...
Good Afternoon! Long Term #interestrates are PUMPING today!!! The 10 & 30 Yr have been struggling in this area. They are currently forming a negative divergence. We'll see how that goes. 3Month - 1Yr haven't moved much. 2Year #yield is also moving. This is "good"! That means that the normalization of yield curve is not happening yet. #stocks #gold #silver
The US #Dollar has pulled back a bit: At MAJOR SUPPORT At Green Moving Avg = Support RSI is at 50 (neutral bullish unless crosses lower) Weekly TVC:DXY is 50-50 The RSI is curling over but the MACD is now above 0 = down trend over Hmmm, interesting scenario Not sure what to make of it Monthly #currency ------------------------------- The 2Yr #Yield broke...
Gold declined marginally by 3% in September hitting its major support of 52 weeks SMA, in the face of higher long term Treasury yields TVC:TNX and a stronger Dollar index TVC:DXY . Sentiment remained weak for most of the month as ETFs continued to lose AUM while COMEX managed money net long futures positions fell to a five month low previously in August...
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 1 & 2Yr #yields are falling pretty decently today. This can be very good short term. However....... It's conceivable BAD in the long term (has been historically) IF the curve normalizes. Current rates 2Yr 5.056 vs 10Yr 4.749 The #Fed rarely does things right. I Wonder. Why is that? Can it be by design? #bonds #stocks TVC:TNX
Bear rallies tend to be the MOST FURIOUS!!! Be careful but take ADVANTAGE!!! SP:SPX upcoming resistance @ 3 areas: 4280 Moving avg is a little above that (weakest resistance imo). MAJOR = 4330 (it closes above this will post further levels). Keep an eye as the RSI closes in on 50. #stocks DJ:DJI TVC:NDQ TVC:RUT TVC:VIX TVC:DXY TVC:TNX #GOLD #SILVER
TVC:DXY on left in all charts (only DJI shown here) DJ:DJI & CBOE:SPX & TVC:TNX on right. Short term we are badly due for some sort of relief rally, we nibbled in this area AMEX:UDOW AMEX:SPXL Not sure how high this can go so we have been nibbling and will sell in tranches. #stocks TVC:NDQ AMEX:DIA AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ
Historically, the YELLOW support area NEVER holds when TVC:DXY is on its way back down. HOWEVER, the US #Dollar is showing strength. (this is vs a basket of currencies that are also weak.) 1st time it bounced back this hard. This looks like it wants to keep going, longer term. We'll see. This is NOT good for #stocks (longer term). TVC:TNX has been trading closely.
Good Morning! Historically, Since 1967, #interestrates have been MUCH higher, around 2008 they began to go lower. Most individuals never mention this. So what's the BIG DEAL?! The US was growing FASTER & the DEBT is now ASTRONOMICAL! Costs a TON in payments alone! SOMETHING has to give, SOON. Daily we could be setting up for some relief. TVC:TNX
We've made a stink about the TVC:TNX & the TVC:DXY for a VERY long time now. WAY OVER 1 year. They're trading congruent & it's a danger. Short term #interestrates have been stuck for a while. Keep looking for a normalization of the #yield curve! = Long term rates higher than short term (getting closer). #dollar #stocks