In this screen cast I explore the Halloween Effect -which is a seasonal pattern - going back to 2012.
My overall position is that from 2012, the Halloween Effect is more probable, However, it is not 100%.
Statistical studies have been tracking this effect based on data largely based on a far more data before 2012 (but including the time up to the the present)....
Wheat has been bullish since the beginning of 2018 and I think there is reason to expect to see it continue.
Some of the main drivers are:
1. Potential tariff introduction and major us trade partners like mexico moving to other wheat sources affect trade stability and commodities as a whole.
2. The developing drought in the US this summer
Watching for a move...