AUDNZD as shown on the 15- minute chart is rising after the Australian central bank raised its
prime rate in keeping up with another global tightening. Since May 24th AUDNZD has risen 4%
in various legs with some consolidation but no downturns. ADUNZD may be due for a correction.
IT is shown here on the 15-minute chart along with the "Alpha Trend" indicator,...
CBOT: Micro 30-Year Treasury Yield ( CBOT_MINI:30Y1! )
President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement in principle late Saturday to raise the nation’s debt limit and cut federal spending, ending a rollercoaster round of negotiations.
The current national debt ceiling is $31.4 trillion. The tentative deal would raise it by $4 trillion...
CME_MINI:NQ1! - Busy week ahead!
We've got a busy calendar ahead of us and remember it's first day of the month - May a Lot of US Data!
1. ISM
2. JOLTS
3. ADP
4. FOMC
5. NFP
Now that's a busy week and I know for some, they will be stepping back and not trading during a hectic week ahead, but I do feel there will be plenty of opportunities. Now, banking...
Even though Federal Reserve tries to dominate the indices that can supply money power to people and rise up inflation more, the markets correlate with that thought and do not overestimate the reach of tightened regulations. Traders have grasped each drop with a rally at the very end, bears get trapped thinking it's their trend on a mistaken momentum. Results...
This week's Federal Reserve meeting is highly anticipated, and I`m predicting that the market will go down following the announcement. The primary reason for this prediction is the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates high for longer, with no rate cuts predicted for this year.
Based on fixed income futures, there is a 70% chance that the Fed will...
NYMEX: WTI ( NYMEX:CL1! ), RBOB Gasoline ( NYMEX:RB1! )
Over the weekend, eight OPEC producers, led by Saudi Arabia, announced intentions to cut oil production by 1.16 million barrels per day through the end of the year. This adds to Russia’s existing plan to trim 500,000 barrels from February level, bringing the combined voluntary cuts of OPEC+ members in excess...
BTC/1H Still in that Parallel Upwards channel
*I FORGOT to mention there is a ascending triangle pattern on btc which I think its jebaiting the longers*
Today is FOMC day where rate hike will be announced and will have huge impact on whole market , not only traditional but crypto as well.
We usually get a move to both side around (%3) liquidating all the high...
COMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! )
Gold prices surged Friday as a wave of banking crises shook global financial markets. Spot gold climbed 3.1% to $1,977.89 per ounce, its highest level since April 2022. Gold price is now within $100 of its all-time high of $2,074.88.
In the futures market, the nearby April contract of COMEX gold futures settled at...
From a Technical standpoint we can see solid resistance forming in this current supply zone, which supports a RETEST of the SHOULDER that has formed around 1.19 Area. There will be a significant fight here however, as the downwards momentum of STERLING is very strong.
Fundamentally the outlook for GBP remains very challenging as opposed to the US Dollar. Whereas...
CME: E-Mini S&P Retail Select Industry Futures ( CME:SXR1! )
Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the latest Personal Income and Outlays Report. Personal income gained $131.1 billion (0.6%). Disposable personal income (DPI) added $387.4 billion (2.0%) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew $312.5 billion (1.8%) for the month...
Real rate is different from interest rate. Real rate is the difference between interest rate with the inflation. We have been running on negative real rate for a decade plus. This is an accommodative measure by the Fed to make sure the market is still running hot. S&P500 has been running well during this period of time where the interest rate is kept below the...
Market got the .25 rate hike they wanted
Everyone stated the lower rate hike was priced in.
Market still rallied even higher upon getting the news they long expected
Conclusion: expected future events are not priced in.
CBOT: Treasury Yield Spread 10Y-2YY ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro Dow ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ), Micro S&P ( CME_MINI:MES1! )
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. The move marked the eighth consecutive hikes that have began in March 2022. The overnight risk-free rate is...
Traders,
The market expects 25 basis points tomorrow. What they are unsure of is how it will look in March. While the fed may indicate yet another rate hike in March, the dollar, vix, and treasuries are telling us else wise. Let's take a spin through our lead indicators today as well as Bitcoin.
Stew
The market has been rising a lot lately, with many turning bullish. We have a critical event coming that will dictate the direction of the market sentiment.
Market broadly believes Fed will reduce rate hike from .50 to .25. I have concerns with this conclusion
Unemployment has been decreasing regularly.
Inflation is reducing but still high.
We see a...
Traders,
You all know that I have been expecting and discussing this day for many moons now, the day we break above our macro downtrend. Today is that day. Day 1 of what I expect to be a blowoff top that will surprise many investors, maybe a majority of investors.
Before I get ahead of myself in enthusiasm, we will need another confirmation candle here on the...
