CRYPTO:BTCUSD This is not a trend analysis or signal of any kind just my own speculation about what may come to happen after the halving .
as we know the last cycle coincided with the fed cutting rates and the money printing going crazy like brrrrr .
although we can expect at least another round of rate cuts in 2024 nothing is really guaranteed this cycle .
we've...
The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady at 5.25%-5.50% while continuing its balance sheet reduction as planned since May 2023.
In contrast, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) might announce a rate cut tomorrow.
It's anticipated that Banxico could decrease its interest rate from 11.25% to 11%, potentially applying pressure on the Mexican peso. This...
before you read any further, read my post from april:
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it has been awhile since i've given a public update on the us10y and my general theory about where i believe these rates are headed.
back in april of 2023, i gave an upside target of 5.9% for the us10y.
as of today, i'm raising the range for that upside target into the window between 6-9%, going...
✺ End of Bulls rally after the most successful trading day since April.
✺ The possibility of the Goldilocks scenario - is it on the horizon?
✓ PPI data has been reported today.
Key fact: "Firms no longer optimistic"
BLACKBULL:SPX500
After the longest period of growth in 2024, the market closed at -0.41 rate, putting the end to the robust bulls rally since the...
CBOT: Three-MO SOFR Futures ( CME:SR31! )
Breaking News: The US Treasury bonds are risk-free No Longer !
Last Friday, top credit ratings agency Moody's lowered its credit outlook on the U.S. to "negative" from "stable", citing large fiscal deficits and a decline in debt affordability. It has so far maintained the AAA credit rating for U.S. sovereign...
CME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! )
Last Wednesday, investors cheered as the Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in a row. On Friday, a soft jobs report backed up market expectations that the rate-hiking campaign is over. For the full week, the Dow was up by 5.07% in its best week since October 2022. The S&P was higher by 5.85% and the...
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is trading bearish against the Japanese Yen (JPY) at 87.386 on Friday, October 27, 2023, following comments from Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Taro Matsuno that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to conduct appropriate monetary policy.
Matsuno's comments come amid rising expectations that the BoJ will eventually tighten monetary...
The short term price action built a double bottom pattern. Breaking the 1947 area would led the price go up to 1990 level, which was the local top in July.
If we look at the long term price action, it formed a bullish pennant. The height of the bar is 450 point. If we add up this to the breaking point (1930), it should tell us the target of this pennant, which is...
The big story of the day is of course the Fed signaling one more rate hike this year.
At the conclusion of its FOMC meeting a few hours ago, The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged, but projected another rate increase by the end of the year. Additionally, higher for longer is probably the new reality, with projections showing rates falling only...
Soooooo, you know when there's one person in the room that says something crazy.....well I'm possibly about to become that person.
My previous post about the long short on the USD/JPY still shows that there is still a little bit of way for the USD to climb before the drop. So, this took me to the gold chart, and here's where we are at present. I have had this bat...
CME: E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! )
Last Friday was the infamous “Triple Witching Day”, where US stock index futures, stock index options, and single-stock options contracts all expired on the same trading day. These phenomena happen only four times a year: on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. In 2023, Triple Witching occurs on...
30Y Micro Yield ( CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ), Micro Nasdaq ( CME_MINI:MNQ1! ), Chinese Yuan ( CME:CNH1! ), Live Cattle ( CME:LE1! )
On January 2nd, I published an idea titled “Year of the Rabbit: ‘Short-tailed’ Trading”. My outlook for the new year was:
“In the new year, uncertainties will remain the key price drivers of global stock markets: central bank policy,...
CBOT: 30-Year Micro Yield Futures ( CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ), Treasury Bond Futures ( CBOT:ZB1! )
As a result of runaway inflation and rising interest rates, US home buyers are confronted by high home prices, high down payments, and high monthly mortgage payments.
A sneak peek into official housing market data between 2021 and 2023:
• Median sales price of houses sold...
Long story short:
it's a video, watch it!
BTC LONG
USD SHORT
Learn why in this video.
NFP:
Jobs are ok, still good new jobs in the basket but less than previous month (cool off).
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS:
Nobody talks about this but it means wages are rising, labor is going higher, services and products might become more expensive on expensive labor =...
NYMEX: WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ), Micro Crude Oil ( NYMEX:MCL1! )
The talk of inflation deceleration created a wishful misperception. Does a CPI read from 9.1% to 4.0% mean price relief for consumer? Certainly not. Something costed $1 last year will go up to $1.04 this year on average. What really comes down is the rate and the pace of price increase, but the...
Traders,
Over 90% of the market is currently pricing in a FED rate pause tomorrow, but beware, the market often moves towards the point of maximum pain. My charts are showing we are at a critical point of resistance as I type this post. The bulls are going to have to conquer 4,370 and confirm it on the daily to convince me that the they are not out of steam just...
Good day traders. International news recap. This recap has a high probability of influencing the international economic trends for the next six months.
First, let us look at the trade balance of Mainland China, which stands at 452.3 billion yuan, compared to the previous value of 618.4 billion yuan (decreased by 26%).
Furthermore, the trade balance in terms of...
