We have an interesting trade setting up in GBPUSD. The time at mode signal points to an intermediate term decline to 1.4222, that can extend to 1.39366. What's interesting about it is that the resistance above very strong and that the signal generates close to the expected Fed rate hike week. I think we might get a fill this week, and if the trade works, it will...
Hi All! As I did back in August with the september meeting, I have decided to create a possibility of different Scenarios for the EURUSD pair for the month of December. I have outlined 3 scenarios based on the price range seen and recheable so far this year, this would give you a good idea of where to buy, sell or hold positions if you are thinking about trading...
The mood is bullish and a clear uptrend established. I am convinced that next week the FED is not going to hike rates. So Euro and Gold could going up. stay connected for more updates twitter.com
When something is unclear up close, it is often more attainable from a broader perspective. Rarely do traders look at the big picture when evaluating a trend. What people dont know about the DXY is that it has travelled to much higher price ranges than its current treading grounds. When we look at a large time scale, we see that the recent USD rally is a lot less...
Last week saw the DXY get knocked down below the 50ema once again as indecision surrounding the US Rate Hike continues to grip the markets. This time however the 200ema has crept up to meet the 94.00 support level. Should price come down to this point it will also meet the backside of the descending triangle, giving stacked up confluence! A reversal signal here...
IRX (13-week treasury bill index) failed to hold above relevant highs of 0.07% and reverted back to hear-zero levels. Due to its correlation to Effective Fed Funds rate, IRX will serve as an expectations indicator of upcoming federal reserve rate hike Most likely reason of the lack of expectations regarding the rate hike in September is another leg of downtrend...
RunningAlpha Capital Markets see market players in the 5 year treasury notes at the belly of the USA yield curve structurally positioned for a very strong bullish bias ahead on both an absolute and relative yield curve basis. A breakout above the August 5th highs should accelerate the rally and add upside persistence to the 5 year yield. So, be on high alert for...
The US employment report was mixed. Payrolls posted a 215,000 jobs gain, around June's level, while analysts had expected 225,000. The previous number was upwardly revised to 231,000. The unemployment rate remained at 5.3%, while wage growth came out at 2.1% year-on-year, up from 2.0% in the previous month. According to a latest Reuters poll, the median...
Our view for both the UK and US has been that rates will remain lower for longer than many in the market have been anticipating. With the Bank of England's inaugural "Super Thursday" having a more dovish tone than many were expecting that scenario seems more likely in the UK. Indeed Swiss bank UBS has pushed its own forecast for the first UK rate rise out to...
Since mid-July the 3-Month T-bill yield has been trending upwards on quarterly basis (broke out from the 1st standard deviation from 66-day mean amid expanding volatility) The yield is a choppy instrument, however current uptrend (if it holds) may actually signal Federal Reserve rate hike expectations by institutional market participants. 3-Month T-bill is...
all comments are on the chart
Recent expectations in the media regarding Federal Reserve rate hike look a bit overblown. What the Fed is actually planning to raise is the Target Range for the Effective Federal Funds Rate. The Effective rate, however, now trades firmly below the upper border of the range (0.25%), signalling no actual pressure to raise the Target Range. The nature of this...
I'm looking for a long position on USDJPY . The horizontal line marks a few tops in the last years. Yen has to break it to go further upwards. I think it will. On wednesday Bank of Japan take a decision on their interest rates. Since 2010 they follow a zero rate policy. www.tradingeconomics.com There is no sign that it will change soon. That's why i'm basically...
The dollar is playing the range very well at the moment, my overall bias for the dollar is bullish. If price breaks to the upside I'm expecting price to reach 12150 - If this is the case the fed will employ fiscal policy measures in order to control the strength of the Dollar.
Technicals on the chart. Fundamental thoughts. - two consecutive quarterly falls for CPI data and petrol price had a decline of nearly 10% - milk dairy prices on the decline - Looking RBNZ to set a dovish tone in the near future. - USD Rate hikes around the corner. Reasons listed, I would safely say the pair will stay range bound.
The Euro was killed this week as the ECB announced details of their quantitative easing program and US employment data surprised to the upside. $EURUSD broke below the 61.8 Fib and looks set to test the 76.4 Fib/Channel Bottom/Parity over coming months. Holding short from 1.1011/Selling strength. Reversal above 61.8 invalidates.