Small H/S in 15 min, not really big enough to short IMO, but may provide better buying opportunity prior to "expected" rate cut EOM. Could setup to bring SP back down to lower boundary due to primary pattern.
This is a monthly TF analysis of the yellow metal. The main chart shows numerous horizontal lines, these are concrete support and resistance levels taken from monthly charts. This year many people predicted the yellow metal to break out of its long term held range and it happened! After 1370 level was broken, the next hurdle was present at 1430 which held against...
With the first rate cut of the cycle around the corner, it's a good time to look at what $GLD did during the previous time rates were cut. It looks like $GLD kept rising as rate cuts and QE announcements kept coming.
For the last several months we have seen the USD rise against all major currencies and while this was happening we were technically starting to get warning signs of BEARISH DIVERGENCE in the RSI! Fundamentally the US Economy remained strong back then with little worries regarding the trade war and geopolitical issues. The markets thought that the economy wont be...
ENTRY AT AROUND: 1.12600 LEVEL STOP LOSS: 1.12000 TAKE PROFIT: 1.14000 RR: 1:1 On technical perspective the triangle has broken out and the price has retraced for us to go LONG here. The triangle breakout confirms that EURUSD is starting to consolidate and aim towards the weekly 50 EMA. With all the rate cut news going on and the US economy slowing, it should...
There's very little reason now that the dollar can continue to maintain bullishly and break new high any further. The market has given up the thoughts of any rate hike this year and instead, expecting about 2 rate cut this year. The trade war against China has proven to bring devastating effect onto the US economy and now the Fed can no longer remain hawkish as it...
The mood in the market has changed drastically if we were to compare now with the beginning of 2019. The gold has shifted into a period of consolidation as the US-China trade war took a breather. When the trade-deal failed to pull through, it eventually led to escalating global trade risk and the US economic growth is undoubtedly affected. The Fed hasn't been as...
After Powell announced FED's open view to rate cuts based on worsening economic data and Friday's terrible NFP results, US rate cut is more and more probable. Break of the 200SMA, now could go short or wait for the retest for more confirmation and better risk-reward.
Many are expecting a rate cut from BoE this Thursday. Will Carney deliver the cut? Will Pound hit back up to 1.3800 level? Watch the video analysis to find out more: www.youtube.com www.facebook.com www.youtube.com www.fxpresearch.com
RBA Cut the Cash rate to 1.50% by 25bps, the market has had a very subdued reaction though, barely falling 30pips from market. I still think there should be more downside here and into the mid/low 74xx before the full fade comes in - so luckily room for retails to get in, looks like the algos were having a day off today. This is positive for any kiwi$ short...
The RBNZ was dovish in their economic assesment and IMO used it to communicate their 100% commitment to a OCR cut. Key drivers of this view were quotes such as "futher policy easing will be required, and monetary policy will remain accomodative.", "NZD currency strength makes it difficult to hit target inflation" and "NZD exachange rate is too high stronger NZD...
On the margin RBA remained in line with previous meetings, adding little but still keeping it on the dovish side imo. Once again, as in previous minutes (and from several other central banks) RBA continued to communicate the necessity of "watching key data" to drive future policy decisions. Interestingly though, they also mentioned the negative impact of a strong...
Short NZDUSD based on low CPI/ inflation = an RBNZ OCR cut is 90% likely - 105 mins after market open at 23:45GMT NZD releases their June CPI print. - In all RBNZ mandates they reiterate how they consider CPI to be their "main/ sole" target or dictator of the monetary policy they set (check any of their minutes etc). - Their target is 2%, plus recently they...
As expected BOE stood pat on their rate decision reiterating much of which was said last week by Gov M. Carney, the need for more analysis to be done is/ was key - " "Detailed Analysis" of All Policy Options Required" and "Extent Of Additional Stimulus Will Depend on August Forecasts". IMO the notes were very bearish and almost but 100% chance of some sort of...
Short NZDUSD is in my top 2 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. NZD is considered the riskiest G10 currency cross, so NZD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit occurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for NZD due...
Today, Bank of England governor Mark Carney said a rate cut is needed after the Brexit vote and hinted that it could come as soon as this summer! This news got the FTSE and the DAX flying up to nearly 300 points. Also, the Feds stated this week that they may cut rates this summer as well, possibly even this month (July) so that is really great news for global...
Bolstered by a rally in commodities, improved manufacturing data and employment levels in Australia, the economy is doing very well. In fact, it has been the best performing economy among developed nations outside Europe. However, the appreciating AUD is undermining this strong economic performance, dragging the country down and hampering growth. It is in the...
This Wednesday we have RBNZ's Official Cash Rate and Rate Statement. Will this news event give the signal for a bearish move to sub 0.7 levels? I can see price do a number of things by Wednesday. Already anticipating bad NZD news and break lower to 0.6680 region slowly moving towards the lower trend line which then breaks upon the news Staying around...