TBT is an inverse 20 year Treasury Bill ETF. At present, the Iran Israeli conflict threatens a regional conflict to include the Red Sea and the Easter Mediterranean where oil tankers must navigate to move oil from producer to consumer. Oil price escalation could go hand and hand with geopolitical escalations. Oil and its derivatives are a primary driver of...
COF is shown on 1 15 minute chart. The trade idea is to play the drop in a bank stock as a reaction to the sticky inflation report and the idea that a rate cut already baked into stock price is about to come off the table. This is a risky reversal trade. However, with risk comes reward. The idea is on the chart. I will take a long trade here anticipating a...
CRYPTO:BTCUSD This is not a trend analysis or signal of any kind just my own speculation about what may come to happen after the halving . as we know the last cycle coincided with the fed cutting rates and the money printing going crazy like brrrrr . although we can expect at least another round of rate cuts in 2024 nothing is really guaranteed this cycle . we've...
The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady at 5.25%-5.50% while continuing its balance sheet reduction as planned since May 2023. In contrast, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) might announce a rate cut tomorrow. It's anticipated that Banxico could decrease its interest rate from 11.25% to 11%, potentially applying pressure on the Mexican peso. This...
There has been a 12 week uptrend channel in the H4 timeframe starting from January 2024 through to today. The S^P is now showing weakness as follows: 1) There is a triple top on H4 at 5190 2) Bearish Divergence 3) Resisted for 2 weeks in a row 4) Harmonic pattern to sell Remember when a long bull run is broken, the bear run will be of a similar length. Can you...
For the past two weeks, the DXY has been trading within a frustratingly narrow range, lacking clear direction. Today's FED press conference may provide some resolution to this stagnant pattern. Leading up to this event, prominent Fed members have cautioned against overly optimistic expectations regarding future rate cuts. They emphasized that the Fed does not...
CBOT: Micro 2-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro 10-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! ) and Micro 30-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ) The latest US jobs report showed that employers added 216,000 jobs for December while the unemployment rate held at 3.7%, reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). That compared with respective market estimates of 170,000 and...
Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) will likely cut rates before The Bank of England (BOE), meaning potential downside on EURGBP. The Details European interest rate hikes have been successful - Euro Area inflation is around 2%. Mission accomplished. Easing rates is the next step after holding the current rate for a while. Cutting rates will weaken the...
During the December FOMC conference, the fed said the appropriate level for interest rate or the fed funds rate will be 4.6% at the end of 2024 from current 5.5%, 3.6% at the end of 2025, and 2.9% at the end of 2026. Many reporters take that as Fed’s hint to cut rate in 2024, but the Fed added saying these projections are not the committee decision or plan. So...
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve, as widely anticipated by investors, held its benchmark interest rate within the 5.25%-5.50% range—the highest level in 22 years. The accompanying Summary of Economic Projections disclosed a notable shift in the central bank's outlook. Now, the Fed foresees 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, exceeding the September projection...
CBOT: Micro 10-Year Yield Futures ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! ) Maritime transport is the backbone of international trade and the global economy. Over 80% of the global trade volume in goods is carried by sea, according to the UN. Therefore, whenever a major trade route is blocked, shipping time would be lengthened, which pushes up freight cost, and ultimately, the prices...
In 1930, when the Fed cut interest rates, the market crashed further. In today's tutorial, we will be comparing the 30s and today’s market to identify some of their similarities. Where exactly are interest rates’ direction pointing us? As we may have read, many analysts are forecasting that there will be a few rate cuts in 2024. Is this the best option? My work...
CBOT: Three-MO SOFR Futures ( CME:SR31! ) Breaking News: The US Treasury bonds are risk-free No Longer ! Last Friday, top credit ratings agency Moody's lowered its credit outlook on the U.S. to "negative" from "stable", citing large fiscal deficits and a decline in debt affordability. It has so far maintained the AAA credit rating for U.S. sovereign...
Does this RSI divergence signal what's to come. I believe there is a catalyst coming that will cause the dow to plunge as will other indices. As of now im not sure what that is. something will blow up whether its banks ect. The fed will have no choice but to do an emergency rate cut. IF the rate cut happens. that's the time to go short. go look at every previous...
The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus...
AUDUSD is trending to the upside today ahead of US elections. A break above the resistance trendline could signal for buyers to drive price higher, likewise a rejection of the resistance line could signal further selling. We are bullish AUDUSD today as traders may look to reduce USD exposure approaching the elections. It is worth taking into account the RBA's rate...
Backdrop Rapidly escalating trade war tensions between US and China and concerns on a potential second wave of covid-19 continue to linger. President Putin faces many challenges domestically, and his policies could ultimately impact the direction on the ruble. Trouble at home Russia is struggling to contain covid-19 at home and is on track to remain top 3 in...
I know FED is playing big moves ahead so far to prevent the State from the pandemic before it may cause more disruption around the country. The reason is beyond technical analysis for me to think even slightly how this pair might gonna end up trending upward. The big moves which I'm talking about from fed were the double rate cut within a month and some repo...