Backdrop Rapidly escalating trade war tensions between US and China and concerns on a potential second wave of covid-19 continue to linger. President Putin faces many challenges domestically, and his policies could ultimately impact the direction on the ruble. Trouble at home Russia is struggling to contain covid-19 at home and is on track to remain top 3 in...
I know FED is playing big moves ahead so far to prevent the State from the pandemic before it may cause more disruption around the country. The reason is beyond technical analysis for me to think even slightly how this pair might gonna end up trending upward. The big moves which I'm talking about from fed were the double rate cut within a month and some repo...
#spx #sp500 #fedfundrate - The Federal Reserve lowered the Federal Fund Rate today from 1.5% to 1% in the first rate cut outside of an FOMC meeting since Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008. This came as the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, claimed that the economy is doing fine and unemployment is at a multi-decade low. If everything is so “fine”, then...
Most of the wise traders knew that the 25bp rate cut probabilities were higher and then finally when the actual day came up it ended up being a cut actually. I don't wanna explain all those stuff which had already been past but for now, we can see good demand in Aussie just to know that fed might have some future rate stimulus probabilities (but that part on next...
Quick update here on the state of the market. The FOMC futures for March 18th are currently pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut, with a 95% chance of a 50 basis point cut. I warned that we would see a strong central bank response, and it appears we are going to get just that. This comes amidst a recent move in Hong Kong to award it's citizens with...
I posted about AGNC at the beginning of January when AGNC was around $17.50, I called for $20 no later than June. What a pleasant surprise that AGNC has continued to stay on fire! Now one might ask how did I turn this little, fairly slow moving stock into 480% gains in just 6 weeks? I mean this sounds like crypto gains, not stock market gains! This is a...
So... the UK data coming out today is pretty important, if bad it increases the chance of a rate cut by the BOE, but if positive it kinda kills it! So there should be pretty big movement on the GBP if the print is better than expected or worse thane expected! The video pretty much explains our thinking here and our trading tactic, we are long on GBPUSD and we are...
This idea is based on that the market is already pricing rate cut in GBP, so it is possible that we are going to see a strong pull back in price and then buy out from the level around 1.2957.. it provides decent R:R for joining bulls with stops below 1.29 and take profit around 1.312. (R:R=2.86) If the rate remains unchanged it will be a positive scenario for GBP...
The gold miners' ETF is testing its downward trend line again today, and may be in the process of making a rounding bottom. Buy low in the crescent or watch for a bullish trend line break. Gold has been showing some strength due to Fed policies and dollar weakness. It could break out upward on news of either significant market weakness or a breakdown in the US dollar.
In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #Fed's rate cut and identify the main components leading to their decision. I also talk about their decision toolbox and wonder whether they should start looking at slowing inflation with a different eye? One that doesn't look at trade wars with such certainty. With Fed, BOC and now also BOJ out, we can't...
We just received the 25 basis points rate cut. The market had already priced it in. Powell just released the statement. It seems to be a dovish one . He will start his speech at 2:30pm, where the market will try to understand the possibility of a 4th rate cut in December. The CBOE Fed tool has the 4th cut in December at 26%. We should see the yield curve...
The play for OTM calls on TLT right now is a good risk to reward for myself given the numerous positive potential outcomes. If they don't cut rates, I expect TLT to make a very nice upward move due to bond prices going up and maturity going down. If they cut rates, I still expect bond maturities to go down and for TLT to go up. With the current landscape I am...
While the SP500 trading at all time high and Mainstream media and the American Government is just talking about how wonderful, bright and happy everything is i just want to share the technical chart of 2019 Federal Reserve Fed Cuts on the SP500 Chart which were done this year. 31.07.2019 2,25% SP500 dropped 8-9% 18.09.2019 2,00% SP500 dropped...
XAUUSD is still in its long-term falling channel, but it's established both short-term and mid-term uptrends. If you're day trading gold, you'll want to exit if it falls below the steeper trend line. (Honestly probably too late for a day trade entry at this point.) I expect it will break this trend line soon and move sideways along the volume support. If you're...
As we can see from the chart above, the cross reached a very important resistance first established back in May as a support and tested in June; the "change of polarity" happened in July, when price dropped of more than 4% in 2 trading weeks. As the saying goes: "the first test never fails"; it didn't indeed. We could be in front of a retest of the resistance,...
Today's market showed some breath, specially for software. Which is normally a growth>value story. $118 is the closing gap resistance. Important market sentiment: Tomorrow October 4th will be a deciding move, as we get the employment report before the open (8:30am ET). With recent continued weak manufacturing data, this employment data could tell us if a...
Gold is a safe haven at this time. A rate cut is priced in of US Fed after worse than expected ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI.
A break below 156-ish is bearish in my opinion, and increases the likelihood that IWM will retest the bottom of its descending channel. In addition to that, the RSI is showing overbought conditions. If it breaks below the 156-ish level, I will short it via puts and look for a risk/reward somewhere in that area I noted. Fundamentally, it all hinges on the Fed...