The global economy is facing a number of challenges, including rising inflation, slowing growth, and geopolitical tensions. These challenges have led some economists to warn of a potential stagflation environment, characterized by high inflation and low economic growth. Overall, the dollar had a few battles with other intermarket factors that tried to halt its...
My dear friends, Thursday, 14 September, 2023 and ECB interest rate decision is on the way. We'll wait for confirmations. But before ECB meeting, series of several bad economical news over China's financial stability were published. Market reacted to them rationally. Suddenly the red dragon start to regain it's reputation. Good news for China means stronger...
Though I long term bullish on Bitcoin, my opinion remains unchanged from my former analysis in 2022. In which I believe the crypto market remains in a prolonged correctional wave. Since the initial analysis, interest rates have risen dramatically, mid/low cap equities have continued to bleed, and I myself believe crypto has yet to enter the next bull cycle....
Everybody is so depressed about China that it is time to look for the bottom... All big players have sold China, the state is starting to take some economic measures
Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts 📈💰 The 15th BRICS summit was held in South Africa from August 22-24, 2023. There have been some important updates that concluded from this summit and if you're an active trader / speculator in the Forex, stocks or commodities market, you NEED to know about this. The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China,...
US500 Futures sitting in middle of critical Support/Resistance levels & 23.6%-38.2% Fib Retrace. Key Global Economic data, BRICS Summit, Jackson Hole Symposium, & US Earnings (NVDA) ahead. What a crazy/volatile time to be trading in Global Markets.
Here's a monthly chart of the ES1-ES2 (difference between the two). I'm just wondering if anyone has looked at this before and what it could possibly tell us about the market and economy in general.
I think this chart is self-explanatory. Delinquency Rates have been falling to historic lows. The next move will be up. What impact will that have on the overall economy? What impact will that have on banks? What impact will it have to gov't deficits and public debt? What impact will it have on inflation? What impact will it have on the dollar? What impact will...
So far so good for this vitally important Index. However, it is elevated (High basing) at the moment and that is a cause for concern. Every previous spike above zero signaled a recession. Will this time be different? Time will tell. But it is well worth your time to keep an eye on this index. As I always say no single chart is the holy grail of analysis. There...
One of the best ways to think about public debt is to think of oil extraction. How many barrels of oil are required to extract 1 barrel? Right now we are extracting only $0.64 cents of GDP for every new $ of added public debt. This is a horrific ROI. Can you imagine using 1 barrel of oil to extract 64% of a barrel of oil? To make matters worse it keeps falling and...
Corporate Profits Inflation Adjusted has been falling as expected when I first published this chart. But unlike the first chart I have inflation-adjusted it this time to get a more accurate reading. Something we have not needed to do for decades. Before I continue can you chart corporate profits and like charts? Answer yes you can which is why I added the...
The Treasury General Account (TGA) prior to the GFC of 2008 averaged between $4 and $5 billion. When the debt ceiling people freaked when it hit $48 billion (9X more than the historic average.) LOL! Today it's $500 billion 100X more than the historic average on its way to $600! Oddly enough to MMTers the TGA has never gone negative (As my friend @HenricCont...
I expect Delinquency Rate On Commercial And Industrial loans to rise from historically low levels. While that may not appear as a bad thing moving into a more normal territory the impact that it will have may be a lot more than the economy can handle. I can't help but think of Hyman Minsky "Stability is inherently destabilizing" Hyman Minsky Caution is in order!
Self explanatory. Emerging markets currencies keep printing in excess leading to devaluation for over 12 years straight. Needless to say it is now at a key area. (Red Arrow) While it has not been talked about much. This has led to a mini emerging market currency crisis. Turkey Sri Lanka Lebanon Pakistan Argentina Venezuela Egypt Russia Colombia etc.. Adding...
Macro Monday (2) Potential Recession Time Horizon Below you will find a breakdown of how many months pass before a confirmed Economic Recession (shaded grey areas) after the yield curves first definitive turn back up towards the 0% level: 1) 13 Months (Dec 1978 – Jan 1980) 2) 9 Months (Nov 1980 – July 1981) 3) 16 Months (Mar 1989 – Jul 1990) 4) 12 Months (Mar...
The dollar index's quarterly chart is the most important as we heading into the second half of 2022. Contrary to the popular belief, the quarterly chart suggests the DXY may bounce strongly in the coming six months, putting downward pressure on zero-yielding assets like gold. Also watch out for a potential breakout in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the...
LONG opportunities incoming for Gold *W (tf) (wave 5) Wave 4 completed ? Long Confirmation is anticipated with the red trendline resistance breakout and CHoCH's on smaller time frames. Current support trendline support on green and 20EMA on *W TA speaking, Gold is sitting at a very sweet spot until the uptrend is invalidated - Looking ahead for New All Time...
This is the differential of 10yr vs 1yr US bond which represents long term against short term yield on sovereign debt, and those you don't know, short term bonds are used by central banks to control interest rates(amazing uh? the FED does not actually print money) therefore they do use bonds as a tool to control interest rates which then controls the S&D of...