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Navigating a Prolonged Correctional Wave

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
Though I long term bullish on Bitcoin, my opinion remains unchanged from my former analysis in 2022. In which I believe the crypto market remains in a prolonged correctional wave.

Since the initial analysis, interest rates have risen dramatically, mid/low cap equities have continued to bleed, and I myself believe crypto has yet to enter the next bull cycle.

Looking a bit deeper into the situation we see a lack of volatility and liquidity. Often resulting in similar PA from 2018 which was commonly known as the bart market.
Slow and sudden PA is mostly due to lack of liquidity and market participation. Pair this current environment with the regulatory pressure coming into the space, I remain unsold on the idea that the Bitcoin correction is over.

Though I believe a some upward movement is possible due to a major event such as an ETF approval, I believe any hype will remain temporary until global macros improve.

So until then, I will leave these levels to react upon.

In summary:
  1. Long-Term Bullish on Bitcoin: My long-term bullish stance on Bitcoin remains consistent with my assessment from 2022. I maintain the view that the crypto market is still undergoing a prolonged correctional phase.

  2. Changing Market Dynamics: Since my initial analysis, we have witnessed a significant shift in market dynamics. Notably, interest rates have surged, and mid/low cap equities continue to face challenges. These factors have contributed to a sentiment that the crypto market has yet to embark on its next major bull cycle.

  3. Volatility and Liquidity Concerns: Diving deeper into the market's current state, we encounter concerns surrounding volatility and liquidity. The market's price action often mirrors the patterns seen during the 2018 'bart market.' This can be largely attributed to a lack of liquidity and reduced market participation. Furthermore, the regulatory pressures looming over the crypto space further cast a shadow of uncertainty.

  4. Temporary Potential with ETF Approval: While I acknowledge the possibility of a short-term price surge due to a major event such as an ETF approval, it is important to exercise caution. Any resulting hype may prove to be ephemeral, contingent upon broader improvements in global macro conditions.

  5. A Waiting Game: In light of these factors, I remain patient and observant. Until we witness a more substantial shift in market dynamics and improved global macros, any long term trade will be exercised with caution.

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