Black swans did not fly by, and there were no important macroeconomic statistics or news injections either on the financial markets. In general, the lull that has lately reigned in the financial markets is lingering and the silence begins to become painful. Usually, it all ends with a storm. But a storm needs a trigger. For example, Trump’s next demarche and the...
Heading into next week very bearish against the dollar. While the rally of last week was enjoyable if you were long on the dollar it seems the macroeconomic environment has changed and the tides may turn. On the fundamental side of things you have Trump threatening more tariffs against China, kicking off the trade war again and shocking the markets into...
Despite the extremely weak statistics from the Eurozone published on Monday and rather depressing data on producer prices, published on Tuesday, the euro tone was relatively good in the foreign exchange market yesterday. The reason was the information that the ECB is not ready to resort to additional monetary incentives. Therefore you should not expect to ease...
It is common knowledge that interest rates play a major role in any economy, so I recently decided to sit down and see how the 10 year U.S. bond yield has acted during recessions in the past to see if it correlates somehow with today's markets. After all, the biggest component of any recession is monetary policy which would imply interest rates and therefore bond...
There are several factors supporting this hypothesis, including wave theory, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and macroeconomic factors. Wave Theory: Based on the Two Day chart above, it looks like we're in a diametric and should be nearing the end of wave-(D) because it is time similar to the other waves, and the internals of that wave seem to have...
Based on the higher time frames, the price has been declining rapidly to the downside, the trendline was broken and tested our key daily area of support 1.81500 which was created by the previous swing to the low before retesting the key institutional area of supply1.88000. I will be monitoring candlestick behaviour around this key region to see if we can get more...
Puede que el crash ya haya empezado! / Maybe the crash has already started! Los últimos serán los primeros... / The last will be the first ... Si corrige puede que lleguemos al nivel de los 2570 puntos. / If there is a correction, we may reach the 2570 points level. Debería ser así por la clara divergencia entre el precio y el indicador RSI. / It should...
The stalemate of the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing weighs on the main trend of the US. There was the increase of 200 billion dollars in US goods on Chinese goods, since last Friday. In fact, before Trump's words that reversed the direction of the price, the DOW JONES, NASDAQ and SP500 trends were all projected to rise in the short term. The...
DXY ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The US Dollar has been respecting daily trendline support for almost 12 months. One would imagine that weakness in the dollar is imminent. I would say yes but not that fast as people would think. Using supply and demand analysis, price has...
Looking at the SP:SPX 1-month chart, I’m seeing some strong indications pointing at SPX being at the top of a potentially violent crash. Evidence For – Indicators that Support SPX Being at the Beginning of Crash: MACD Support Trendline: Broken with Some Distance – In the previous two crashes, the beginning of the crashes coincided with the MACD support...
If you believe big media news headlines you'd be thinking that GBP is on some mega path of recovery. It ain't. The evidence is that GBP is in serious trouble as seen by most of the big daily trends. Unless something miraculous happens big trends like these especially GBPUSD create further probabilities for the south. But on the geopolitical-economic circuit,...
As I dig deeper, the Bitcoin picture becomes clearer. I'm starting to believe that Bitcoin is the penny stock of the world's finance. I'm comparing Bitcoin to a fund that manages a basket of EM-related assets. This is the reported breakdown as of October: China 19.95% Other 16.59% South Korea 14.78% Taiwan 11.39% Russia 8.23% Brazil 8.01% South...
I do not trade this index. In this screencast I show how there was a major struggle in the world economies between February 2018 and today 28th October 2018. I explore potentials for Bitcoin and Gold. A major corrective move south n the MSCI-ACWI has happened. This index is an aggregate of world indices. What we see on this chart is: 1. Price struggling to...
I'm stalking GBPCAD and other Sterling pairs for action next week, as Brexit talks have yet again broken down. Stalking is about vigilance, and investment of time in being prepared.
To start off this little essay I'd like to start off with a disclaimer - I'm no visionary and unfortunately still incapable of exact event-prediction, therefore this analysis is a pure digression through my thoughts and an exposition of ideas and my current bias in the whole crypto-sphere. I've grown to become a believer that Trading Analysis without a...
Seems as if a lower high will be established on the lower timeframes as price comes back to test the previous low that's sitting on a strong support zone. A decent R:R entry could come at the completion of the the bullish bat pattern (it's based on the 1HR so exercise caution). Big data ahead this week with consumer confidence and personal spending numbers; GDP...
"In general, we find that monetary policy should react to asset prices and should try to “prick” or “burst” asset bubbles." (Roubini 2005) Though it is clear they have not done so, anyone can see that there is an asset bubble in the stock, bond, and housing markets yet the FED continues their Zero Interest Rate Policy, and continues to print money at unprecedented...
There are occasions where central banks policies diverge, either by one being hawkish the other being dovish, or by one being less accommodative while the other leans to provide further easing, in general these diverging moments are cyclical habits of markets, they come in various and actually unlimited ways and tastes, where the divergence of central banks...