As we close out the first trading week of 2023, all 3 US indices close on Friday with a 2+% gain. What a great start to 2023! Is it really, though? If you think the market rallied on higher than expected NFP and lower unemployment rates, this is your first mistake. For most of 2022, the market had considered any economic strength is bad for stocks because...
Long USD Governor: Jerome H. Powell Monetary Policy: Monetary policy in the United States comprises the Federal Reserve's actions and communications to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates--the economic goals the Congress has instructed the Federal Reserve to pursue. o Sentiment: Bullish o Rate Decision: 1% o Current...
AUDUSD has this strange Inverse Cup with Handle / Bearish Head And Shoulders sorta look to it, but more clearly, it has formed a very real Massive Bearish 5-0 that has been in the making for many years and it has recently tested the PCZ as resistance at the 50% retrace and confirmed it with huge amounts of MACD Hidden Bearish Divergence. If this plays out fully,...
Purpose This analysis is meant to provide a long-term outlook for equity markets. I also use this to support my data-driven, long-term investment decisions. Sharing this with the public helps me avoid one of the most common mistakes investors make in the market - missing the forest for the trees. Table of contents Central banks policy Economic growth...
This is more of a observation or thought experiment than any kind of technical analysis. The starting point of all data points is the SPX ATH. All other historical ATH values begin at the most recent ATH (January 22), and end whenever price returned to its respective ATH. Time and Change is more important than Time and Price. It's easier to see this from a...
Still eerily on course. Reversal in the medium term? Continuation? Nobody knows.
To set a dollar investment strategy for the year ahead, we need to be aware of the macro context. The current situation resembles the beginning of two stagflations in the early 1970s and 1980s which were characterized by accelerating inflation after reaching its bottom due to record-low unemployment, and the Fed’s rate hike to combat the inflation surge. Now we...
With inflationary expectations low, a decrease in CPI and Core CPI, a likely slowing in interest rate hikes, there's too much positive news in the short term to ignore the likelihood of a near-term rally. Still, some hinges on Jerome Powell's outlook tomorrow, but I expect him to keep language as soft as his last speech. Last month, he was still very domineering...
S&P (in this chart ES futures) divided by EURUSD (in this chart Euro futures): The whole of 2022 could be Wyckoff distribution, now entering Phase C, the shortest phase. To confirm the pattern and continuation to phase D, look for: Fed hike less aggressively in 2023 ECB hike more aggressively in 2023 A move up in EUR (a move down in DXY) A move down in...
We are all asking ourselves the same question, are we in the next big financial crash or is the worst already over? To answer this question, let's look at the S&P 500 since the beginning. The S&P has only seen one really big/long correction in its history and that was triggered by the Great Recession in the 1930s and the following Second World War. Since...
I have heard both sides: 1) Historically, the Fed pivot will result in a decline in equities because they are pivoting in response to negative economic data which drags on equities, and 2) this time is different, negative economic data is positive for equites because it means inflation is on its way down. When people reference the former, for whatever reason,...
GBPUSD is ahead of an important week of CPI meeting in Tuesday and FOMC on Wednesday. if inflation remains under control we can expect fed to slow down the rate hikes more likely 50 bps the coming week and 25 bps early next year which should trigger USD bears and that's what we expect as well based on the last CPI data. Otherwise if CPI is above expectations we...
Market overview - quick look at BTC, ETH, SPX, GOLD Gold seems to be most bullish out of all those at the moment, lining up with our overall fundamental view that Gold should be king in this macro economic environment going forward for the next 10 years
Nifty and banknifty support and resistance for friday market psychology and mindset what is position sizing
Lots of people are expecting a dramatic crypto recovery soon, but crypto has shown so much overall weakness over the past year, with little signs of strength. Ethereum seems to be playing out a fractal of the previous trend. Assuming this plays out, Ethereum is close to final capitulation. How low it will go and how long the recovery will be - no one knows.
This is our macro view on BTC based on cycle based wave counts. --> BTC is in the final leg down of a full macro corrective wave 4, nobody knows what the excact low would be. Based on wavecounts, Fibonacci extension + retracement targets the most confluence is founded in the 13-11.5k zone (also the launchepad of the previous bullrun) with an potential overshoot...
As tensions continue to escalate between the West and Russia, a new development has emerged in the ongoing struggle over oil shipments. The West has been using shipping insurance as a tool to put pressure on Russia, but this strategy has had limited success so far. Insurance is only available for shipments valued at less than $60 a barrel, and as it happens,...
BNC:BLX credit to @GABSBY for all he has taught me.