Stock has sold off since Jan, and held the downtrend throughout 2018. Bearish momentum is slowing down, as if recovery is in the works (compare LVS idea); betting this bad boy experiences a slowdown, with price staying in the range or having a quick reversal of the downtrend. 21/22/33/34 FEB19 IRON CONDOR @ 0.25 CREDIT General plan: Roll if necessary & if...
Stock has sold off since May/June, with no recovery since last earnings report. Betting on price to stay within this range. 35/40/62.5/67.5 JAN19 IRON CONDOR @ 0.64 CREDIT General plan: Roll if necessary & if possible to reduce risk. Target maximum profit, unless significant profit appears early. Comment or direct message for discussion, or on other interesting...
If you like volatility GBP is the place to look, and we can see one-month GBPUSD implied volatility (vol) at 14.0%, relative to say AUDUSD and EURUSD vol at 9.34% and 7.57% respectively. To put this into perspective, the implied move in GBPUSD over the coming month sits at 413-points from spot, and this expiry encompasses the expected Commons vote on 10 December....
Facebook has earnings tonight and implied volatility is up for their options. I was able to sell a Feb Wk 1 172.50 put for .64. The IV was about 80%, so even with a small gap down the IV should be sucked out immediately in the morning.
LONG USDJPY: 1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows. USD risks are bid 1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in...
The VIX, also known as the fear index, is calculated from the price of options, in other words the cost of insurance against shifts in the market. When investors are willing to pay more to protect themselves, it means they are worried about the near future. Currently, and since a few months now, the evolution of VIX can be described on the following two points...
One of the first things I do when searching for either covered calls to do or just general premium selling plays is to look for high implied volatility underlyings with relatively decent expirations, strike widths, and fairly tight spreads (i.e., having weeklies is best with $1 wide strike widths and a bid/ask that is no more than .15 wide from top to bottom is...
50 Delta ATM Volatilities: USDJPY - - $Yen has an ATM implied volatility curve of 55.95%mrkt 24.08%1wk 18.31%2wk 14.12%1m - Obviously we are aggressively steeper in the front end, with BOJ tomorrow and JPY MOF Fiscal Package details coming next week providing heightened vol for the 1day and 1wk vols - naturally we then see the curve tail off as the event...
NZD$ Technical analysis - Remain bearish below 0.70 - 0.69tp1 0.68tp2 on a rate cut (Aug 10th): Key level close: 1. On the daily and weekly we closed at the strongest pivot point of recent times at 0.70 - this is very bearish as historically this is the strongest level (lower than post brexit). MA: 1. We trade below the 4wk and 3m MA - this is a bearish...
Yen$ Technical analysis - Bullish but fundamentally driven this week: Key level close: 1. On the daily and weekly we closed above the 2nd strongest pivot point of recent times at 1.055 - this is very supportive as historically this is the strongest level (next to 100/101). MA: 1. We trade above the 4wk ma and the 3m MA is acting as strong support (black...
EUR$ Technical analysis - highly bearish: Key level close: 1. On the daily and weekly we closed below the strongest pivot point of recent times below 1.10 - this is very bearish as historically this is the strongest level (lower than post brexit). MA: 1. We trade below the 2wk and 4wk MA - this is a bearish indication + we have been below the 3m MA since...
Technical analysis - highly bearish: MA: 1. Just crossed the 2wk and 4wk MA - this is a bearish indication + we have been below the 3m MA for several weeks unsurprisingly since brexit. IV/ HV: 1. Realised Vols have also unsurprisingly come off, this would but bullish but brexit has distorted the longer dated HV and they are lagging - Implied vols are...
Out of one SPX iron condor ... into another. Did this from my phone, so I don't have the exact metrics on this little fella, but it was supposed to be a "classic" skewed instrument iron condor, with the short call strike at the 75% probability out-of-the-money strike and the short put at the 85% probability out-of-the-money strike for the expiry. I usually like...
My FX portfolio currently consists of : - 2Long x USDJPY @ 106.8; 2Short x GBPJPY @ 151.2 (dynamic hedge for long UJ); 2Short x GBPUSD @ 1.4570. I will add to my short GBPUSD holdings if i can get a similar price & I may add to short GBPCHF or EURCHF downside if markets make a turn for the worst as IMO CHF denominations are under-priced relatively (as discussed...
Staying with short duration index setups here, so that I can be flexible if any non index premium selling opportunities come along; going with RUT over SPX due to RUT's higher implied volatility ... . (As a smaller, alternative trade, you can look at a similar setup in IWM). Metrics: Probability of Profit: 62% P50: 71% Max Profit: $340/contract Max Loss/Buying...
BUY USDJPY @106.5 or @107.0 - SL @105 - TP @109-11 based on: $YEN's historical most important support level - The 105.5 Key level will more than likely hold as it has many times before - At 105.5 there are 3 significant UNSUCCESSFUL tests of the level over the last 3 years thus it is a great entry point. Also another plus is if you look at the monthly chart...