Using information from Options can help us know what is the expected range in the next month. Options implied volatility as mentioned in the previous posts is the expected volatility of the stock in the time of the options life. Implied volatility is a projection, it may deviate from actual future volatility. TSLA has earnings this week it looks like with the...
The Implied Volatility is very high near the 200% percent. Rarely it stays long above this number. The range between the break-even line at expiration is relatively big. 60% probability for some profit. If the IV will drop sharply It will be wise to get out. I diversify my portfolio, it is never "ALL IN".
(Note that I am writing this idea about an hour after market open when $NET is trading around $90) Thought I would publish a quick idea on how I like to select and play earnings on stocks. $NET looks like a decent candidate as an example and actual trade. Earnings reports represent an opportunity for a BIG move, but we just don't know WHICH direction. Many...
We're going for a ride in both directions bois. MM keep resetting RSI. Trend is short term bullish and long term bearish. IV is at 15% with price at ATH. There is going to be a squeeze on this sometime. For now, price will gap up and maintain above VWAP/VWMA. We need an absurd RSI to catalyze a rug pull...if there ever is one. Best of luck and may the tendies be with you.
Hey Traders! Disney is reporting earnings today after market close. There really isn't much technical analysis can do to determine what outcome the report will have on the stock price. But I will say this... Disney's stock showed decent price appreciation in the last two and a half weeks going from lows of $117.23 per share to highs of $147.68 per share. Although...
Today, the S&P 500 was able to make strong gains again. However, in a still uncertain environment. The probability of short-term pull-backs is high. On the one hand, the VIX is still trending above the important 50-day line and, on the other hand, the Relative Strength Index was unable to breach the 48.5 thresholds. Thus, the upward trend that began in mid-August...
Still a lot of call option buyers out there. Another leg down will probably decrease the implied volatility and reduce the gap between VIX and VXN.
I want to point out two things in this post: 1. The elevated implied volatility before earnings on blue chips stocks is per se a risk factor due to high call open interest and the following reduction in implied volatility post earnings. 2. The SKEW index is signaling increasing tail risk. The first point: As I’ve pointed out in recent posts, high open...
1. As can be seen VIX has once again formed a bullish wedge which is ready to breakout in the very near future 2. Another way to look at this is by combining the 2 wedges which is forming a triangle ( see attached line chart). This is also showing signs of a breakout. 3. 50d SMA for the PUT/ CALL ratio is at EXTREME lows; last seen in 2009 ! This is...
Hi, traders. My name is Lukas and I am a beginner in trading, respectively, I only trade 9 months. But that means I have to do the necessary analyzes without it I can't trade. I want to show you how I work on myself and document my beginnings. I use Vix and my strategy is built on to return to average. I highlight the important support levels and...
Check the apex time of this bullish descending wedge and combine it with this: finance.yahoo.com Maybe i say maybe something is baking here!!!
Sooooo far away, thought about selling puts. But I am not sure I want to own I if I am wrong. Great premium on this bloodbath of a day.
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Implied move is about $10, would have to move $17 to threaten strangle. Looking for a nice IV crush tonight on earnings.
$MU just had earnings and traded way up again today. Right now I'm looking at this "congestion zone" that the stock had back in February - March of this year. I think that if $MU keeps going that it might stall out here in this zone, and that might be a good opportunity to buy a Calendar spread on $MU - a trade that takes advantage of increasing IV. I have had...
$SMH is currently short-term overbought as the ETF has risen from about 98 to above 116 before shedding gains. Because of it's short-term overbought status, it might look like a good short opportunity. However, I think it $SMH might lurk between 110 and 116 as the overall market digests Trade War news and the now questionable expected rate-CUT from the Fed in...
Implied volatility is very high in $DELL, and earnings are not until after August expiration. Right now, the 45/60 strangle for August has attractive pricing, high profit probability, and relatively small margin requirement. $Dell would need to rise by 16.4% or fall by 13.7% from current levels to be ITM.
The major activity in natural gas, especially over the past 2 weeks presented an opportunity to make a bullish-neutral bet. 31/32/42/43 JAN19 IRON CONDOR @ 0.73 CREDIT General plan: Roll if necessary & if possible to reduce risk. Target maximum profit, unless significant profit appears early. Comment or direct message for discussion, or on other interesting...