Traders, In this update, I am going to focus mostly on the U.S. Housing Market decline and what it means for the Feds reactionary policies, the U.S. stock markets, crypto, and the future of our U.S. economy. Stew
New Housing Data has dropped this week and New home sales later today. It's going as expected. Cycling down and looking sharp. It's a very cyclical market, crests in July-Sept and bottoms around Jan-Mar. About 4-6 months between, once a year.
tradingeconomics.com Showing monthly rolling changes for the housing market - which is the first to go. When it bottoms out and stops dropping over the period, the bear market is over. Also showing that the 50 monthly moving average will be crossed once, then 3 months later, it will crossover again to continue the second leg down.
Hello and welcome to this analysis It is on the verge of an Inverse Head & Shoulder breakout above 150 for 170/180/195. From past data its been observed that an IHS which forms after a steep correction, in this case both in terms of price and time the reversals usually suggesting this could turn out to be a major trend reversal for the medium and long...
In both of these charts, you can see the correlation between 2 sectors that had if not IDENTICAL run ups due to their nature of being overbought and unregulated. (housing crisis of 08 vs Crypto crisis of 2022) As of now we are still on our path downwards. The housing crisis took until Nov 2007 to late 2009 to start on the path of recovery. We know cryptocurrency...
United Wholesale Mortgage Corporation, Higher interest rates lead to an increase in Mortgage Servicing Rights in come.
Since Fed's tapering began in the end of 2021, mortgage figures have been in a mark up phase. There is still no indication of a correction. As a result of it, housing prices may not find support for new high levels. Monthly price changes in the negative territory are supporting this idea in the last months. However, the year over year housing price changes are...
Mortgage rates are penciling-in to be around 10% on a first mortgage note by Jan/Feb - so everyone with a couple of brain cells to rub together knows what that will do to real estate prices. Some good things will come out of this - like the Gen Z's in the market will get a chance to become homeowners, but in trading terms, this is a very good opportunity. ...
Demand always rules supply. Always. BLUF: Short-term projection = TBD Mid-term projection = bullish Long-term projection = bearish to extremely bearish Traders, I have been quick to point out the tremendous amount of disinflationary data in my videos which leads CPI reports in some cases by as much as 6 months (i.e. -rent). Now, let's take a closer look at the...
It was drawing the same line from the peak in April 2007 to Nov 2008 housing bottom. We could be looking at a similar turn of events, but again, I think it should be accelerated. (The amount of debt as the reason) If this comparison carries similarly, it is 16 months from the peak in Feb 2022 to August 2023. We'll see... I do think Power of Sales are starting to...
This idea is explained on the chart because that’s the easiest way to explain it. If you start at the green “Start Here” star in the top right corner and follow the green arrows, my observations about the current market conditions and how they compare to previous market crash conditions are detailed. Please feel free to ask questions.
(BTC) After 54 days of the uptrend from the lows the 18 June at $17,6k, going up to $25,1k, for a 42% gain in the middle of a bear market, the bull trap has been confirmed with a downtrend of 22% the day I am writing this in 22 days! The Short BTC target in this downtrend is $18,3k it probably won't hold and re-test the 18 June lows at $17,6k for either make a...
Lumber is a leading indicator for the housing market which is a leading indicator for the economy. In fact, as you can see on the chart, they are usually TOO leading. Housing Index needs lumber to confirm down trend via at least one failed retest of its ATH before it can establish its own top. After housing peaks, It takes a while before the stock market peaks,...
Will history repeat itself? Is it time to call Ben Rickert, Jared and Vinny. What would those guys think about it? Any other time the houses supply was this high it was considered a recession. I know what you’re thinking. Defaults are what caused the GFC. Loan Defaults? Delinquency rate bubbles are a result of higher interest rates and tight monetary...
What is a Mortgage Backed Security? A Mortgage Backed Security are shares of a Special Purpose Entity (SPE) that holds mortgages. Whenever someone buys a home they usually purchase it with a mortgage. Investment Banks (underwriters) put up the capital and create a mortgage agreement with the home owner. Banks don’t want to carry the risk of mortgages...
Just a quick update of the last chart I posted, which had a bug. These stocks: '0123' '0083' refer to Malaysian stocks, but these stocks: '123' '83' are the symbols we want. Here is the updated index for your usage: '16'/0.3506+'688'/0.08518+'1109'/0.1433+'2202'/0.07858+'1113'/0.2549+'960'/0.211+'83'/0.1272+'2007'/0.07058+'3900'/0.3293+'123'/0.3196 See here...
Just FYI, an equally price-weighted basket of large Chinese real estate companies is down 8% today. Rumor is going around lots of companies in this sector are not paying interest payments and are on the verge of default. Maybe it could spill over into global markets? Dare I say it could be an outbreak in the market flu? These companies are much larger than Enron....
on the one-hour NASDAQ:RDFN chart. Earnings were a miss as compared with the first quarter However, it is showing a reversal pattern in the mid-term price action validated by the Awesome Oscillator and Relative Volume Strength Index applied to the chart. Call Option $ 13 for 9/16/22 with 86% volatility looks to be a candidate ( not financial advice or...