Lumber is a leading indicator for the housing market which is a leading indicator for the economy. In fact, as you can see on the chart, they are usually TOO leading. Housing Index needs lumber to confirm down trend via at least one failed retest of its ATH before it can establish its own top. After housing peaks, It takes a while before the stock market peaks, except during black swan events like Covid of course. But anyone hoping for a black swan event to tank the markets is relying far more on Prayers & Doomium than data.