Long the 10y for rising rates, this means bank stonks. This isn't a perma long as I expect Q3/4 to slow down on the YoY comps. Ultimately I see a lower high from the past high we saw. Lots of inflation bulls here and I am one of them, but this inflation is printer induced. Forget to restock the printer and inflation disappears real fast. The pair trade here into...
We are going to the moon, not today, but if the fed keeps up with buying BFTP and talking about easing rates, I don't see why this PONZI can't go much higher. My only regret is not getting bigger sooner. We are watching a god candle as retail piles back in, once options are put on the ETF's it could get wilder since so little bitcoin can create wild market moves.
The stock, which plummeted from its peak during the 2021 stock mania, has been in decline for the last few years. Recently delisted from NASDAQ, this small-cap company stands out from others affected by the mania, as it generates income. I believe the selling pressure has subsided, making it a prime time to consider a speculative investment. If management can...
See the illustration traced from the 2008 volatility spike leading into the GFC. As it can be seen visually, the similarities are present. The news cycle appears to be dominated by a similar set of events, including the collapse of the 2020's version of Bernie Madoff, SBF. I doubt the volatility will play out in a continuous fashion, as the Fed as new tools to...
Looking at the trends forming on housing we are in a situation for continued de-acceleration. Now this is a big claim, but the headwinds from interest rates rising and the closing window of foreign from China are causing issues. We do however have some tailwinds at entry-level housing with a larger-than-normal immigration policy. I expect weakness in the commuter...
Looking at this chart, we are at the dot-com bubble level of speculation of the traditional blue chip value companies of the dow jones versus the highly speculative Nasdaq companies. Looking here, and based on this chart we should see a pullback and a return to companies with cashflows... This chart isn't an in-depth macro interpretation but is signaling an...
These two normally correlate with each other not on a daily basis but on a trending basis. The last time these decoupled this significantly, it appeared to be a vol impression and it blew up as the 2008 meltdown. We certainly have the ingredients for such an event.
The Macromarket is telling the same story overlapping on the same chart. More puts to calls, higher DXY, and Higher VIX. Likely a near-term top given the number of amateur investors seeing this same reality, but the trend will likely continue until something big breaks and the system bottoms and a new market cycle starts.
It was drawing the same line from the peak in April 2007 to Nov 2008 housing bottom. We could be looking at a similar turn of events, but again, I think it should be accelerated. (The amount of debt as the reason) If this comparison carries similarly, it is 16 months from the peak in Feb 2022 to August 2023. We'll see... I do think Power of Sales are starting to...
Clearly, inflation is a problem and I for one thought the rates rising were overblown after the first hike. (I was very wrong here) With that said, we are likely in the topping process for inflation, pending any new black swan events happen. The indicators show 4 things in regards to this bond. 1. No momentum, 2. Bear market trend 3. below the historical anchored...
VIX continues its higher lows and higher highs channel with the obvious elevated risk that exists in the world. Days we are in the low end of the vix are perfect for buying tail risk protection in the form of PUTs or selling OTM calls on underlying. Breaking the bottom of the channel will be more important than the top as this would signal an actual trend change....
The above chart is the SPX/Gold vs Gold and SPX. When the relationship is bullish stocks tend to be the #1 performer, when the indicator is bearish, gold appears to be the #1 performer. You could use this relationship on a 1M candle and elaborate it further by adding SPY/NASDAQ/BTC/IWM/VTI on the bullish side and USD/TLT/XLU/GLD on the bearish side. Following this...
GOLD/COPPER vs TLT They have a history of correlation as per the chart, but the TLT is way above the ratio... Could be nothing, or it could be the bond bulls are off-side. The chart doesn't go back to the 90s, so I would take it with a grain of salt. This is something one should be cognitive of when they are making big macro picks.
Lots of gloom and doom in the market these days because there is no vertical up and easy money is made. Use this opportunity to risk manage, buy quality on weakness as I did a month ago.
I am not partial to these simple ratios, but they do correlate over time for global risk-on/off. It appears to be 30-year supercycles for the US market/credit macrocycles. Based on this chart, short gold and long DOW...
This chart is crude and only correlates most of the time, but it does stand to reason based on the macro outlook we are staring down the barrel of a sizeable market crash. Now the 3 lines were 2 years after the red circles. That means the bottom is likely at the end of 2023 to 2024. The best way to play this is cash, but deflationary bets might also work. Use...
I know the inflation trade has been discussed and is possibly over, but CORN has been consolidating with higher lows and lower highs. If the trade is not over we could see a breakout to 780$. This is a hedge trade, corn has a lot of moving parts and the three biggest right now being demand for livestock, ethanol blending, and droughts. If traffic is picking up and...
As seen in the past, the crack spread is about to roll over for the summer months until the fall shutdowns start again. How this plays out in the equities like $HFC is yet to be seen.