The S&P500 dipped into our turquoise Target Zone (coordinates: 5025 – 4933 points) with its recent setback. The low of the turquoise wave 4 may have already been reached, but another downward move back into the Zone is still possible. If the index even falls below the support at 4864 points, the magenta wave Alt.(2) will head down into our next Target Zone...
Liquidity Crisis may happen
most of hedgefund did buying treasury bond and then treasury bond margin loan ,
so they made almost 50x leverage on bond market
times over and over now only t-bill s gonna be recognized as collateral
so t-bill market happend this method
But NFP is too strong, FED didn't do Rate Cut now
So t-bill is bubbled now, we are gonna kill...
Stocks are vulnerable to a 5% 'air-pocket drawdown' as greedy traders short volatility.
Tuesday's stock-market pullback on February, 13 after a hot inflation report actually showed us something else about the market.
It turns out that it did… an overcrowded short side of the options market which was reminiscent of the 2018 and 2020 'Volmageddon'...
S&P has been down four straight days. Also, yesterday S&P closed a gap from February which coincides with a support level.
Level to watch: 5074 ---5072
Reports to watch:
Existing Home Sales
10:00 am EST
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 am EST
Our last call on the S&P500 (SPX) couldn't have gone better as the Bearish Megaphone pattern we expected (April 05, see chart below) was eventually materialized and easily hit on Tuesday our 5050 Target:
At the moment the index is below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the main Support since November 03 2023 and is headed towards the 1D MA100...
S&P500 has formed today a Death Cross on the 4H timeframe after 8 months (August 14th 2023), turning bearish on the 1D technical outlook as well (RSI = 37.122, MACD = -81.00, ADX = 53.782) as yesterday it crossed under the 1D MA50 for the first time since November 3rd 2023. Both are technically very bearish developments and according to the last 4H Death Cross, we...
By examining the ES1! 4-hour chart (S&P), we can figure out that, the market structure is bearish, so we looking for a sell position.
In that case, the price had a bearish reaction to all of the bearish Pd Array, so we can expect a bearish reaction on the balance price range (BPR).
In my perspective, sell-side liquidity is a draw on liquidity. Until this...
The SPX retreated nearly 3% from its all-time highs following last week’s print showing a higher-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024. This marks a second consecutive month of accelerating CPI in the United States, which presents an obstacle for the FED in its more than two-year-long battle against inflation. Plus, it makes it increasingly...
The S&P500 index is trading inside a Channel Down.
Every break over the MA50 (4h) forms its Lower High and is a sell signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price as it is over the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 5125 (expected contact with the MA50 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is on a Rising Support, which is a Bullish Divergence in contrast with the Channel...
S&P has been trading in a range since April 4th sell off.
Neither buyers or sellers have any conviction in trading.
Level to watch: 5217.00 ----5215.00
Report to watch:
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 am EST
SPY broke below the (blue) Channel Up and the only Support standing now is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This level has been holding since the November 03 2023 break-out. If it holds, a new pattern will emerge but the medium-term bullish trend will stay intact.
If the 1D MA50 breaks though, we expect a bearish extension similar to August 15 2023, February 24...
If the market does not give us a meaningful bounce tomorrow (~+0.75%) and hold, and instead breaks lower, things could accelerate to the downside pretty quickly. The downside risk at this point is heavier than the upside potential so all I'm saying is be careful. Would not personally be buying at these levels because you may be holding the bag if this goes...
A lot of talk is being done lately on whether the S&P500 index (SPX) has maxed now that it made new All Time Highs (ATH) or it is in need of a strong correction etc. Those who have been following us for long here, know that in times like this, we like to keep a long-term perspective and give you the picture unfiltered with the facts only.
Along those lines, we...
The stock market had a monstrous performance in recent years and continues its secular bull run but If you compare it to gold it performs quite normally...and if you compare it to Bitcoin it has a disastrous performance. Looks like those monstrous performances of the stock market are mostly caused by the dollar devaluation rather than anything else
Thanks a lot you the likes, really appreciate! It is not financial advice just recreational trading idea sharing
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- 5332.5: price point identified as potential optimal entry for short direction trade. Depends on the velovity of the market when if hitting that price point again.
- 5168.75 to...
For the first time in 2024 the US Stock Market's S&P 500 has shown TWO bearish signs at once this week.
In any given year statistically one can expect 2 or 3 corrections of -5% to -10%. It is now month 4 of 2024 and we are due.
In this video I talk about the two signs (False Breakout Monday, Break and Hold Resistance Thursday) that came together to signal the...
