Bearish, but expecting
a short term bullish move.
Price has reached the
4th standard deviation,
swept the LRLR, then
mitigated the +OB. The
expectation now is an
External -> Internal LQ
move.
Wait/watch for signs of
reversal from the current
poi.
I enjoy any feedback or questions in the comment section.
All opinions are welcome!
LIKE or BOOST this post, if you...
Yesterday market had a positive day after closing six consecutive down sessions. If traders can keep above yesterday's Close, we could see a positive session as well today.
Level to watch: 5066 --- 5064
Reports to watch:
PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM EST
New Home Sales
10:00 AM EST
So again, I cashed out my trade just above 5000 as we fell last night following the Israel drone strike against Iran. Most of that dip appears to have resolved itself, at least for the moment, but those geopolitical issues will likely be crucial to the potential of a market fall in the coming days.
I go into it in the video, but major Earnings are next week, and...
The overnight range was the name of the game today. As mentioned earlier, we were looking for a potential break in either direction. After establishing the initial balance, we saw a test of the overnight session low (5019), which was successfully defended. Subsequently, buyers entered the market, leading to a push higher in $ES. This move broke the high of the...
S&P500 is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.601, MACD = -44.800, ADX = 58.528) as it touched the 1D MA100 on Friday after more than 5 months. This calls for a short term rebound at least as every previous corrective wave inside the multi month Channel Up that approached the 1D MA100, it rebounded to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Following our...
If daily gap holds then upside targets
*5021.5 then 5026.5-5037.
For downside targets
*4997-4991 and if that fails 4974
Daily Trend Tracker
*DXY - Bullish - *VIX - Bearish - *US10Y - Bearish
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At the end of last week, sellers confirmed weekly consolidation by closing below the previous week's low. From now on, bears have control over the price on the weekly timeframe. We should monitor the progression of weekly lows and highs to see when things start to shift, but until then, we should trust the sellers.
It is also notable that if we look at the futures...
The S&P500 dipped into our turquoise Target Zone (coordinates: 5025 – 4933 points) with its recent setback. The low of the turquoise wave 4 may have already been reached, but another downward move back into the Zone is still possible. If the index even falls below the support at 4864 points, the magenta wave Alt.(2) will head down into our next Target Zone...
Liquidity Crisis may happen
most of hedgefund did buying treasury bond and then treasury bond margin loan ,
so they made almost 50x leverage on bond market
times over and over now only t-bill s gonna be recognized as collateral
so t-bill market happend this method
But NFP is too strong, FED didn't do Rate Cut now
So t-bill is bubbled now, we are gonna kill...
Stocks are vulnerable to a 5% 'air-pocket drawdown' as greedy traders short volatility.
Tuesday's stock-market pullback on February, 13 after a hot inflation report actually showed us something else about the market.
It turns out that it did… an overcrowded short side of the options market which was reminiscent of the 2018 and 2020 'Volmageddon'...
S&P has been down four straight days. Also, yesterday S&P closed a gap from February which coincides with a support level.
Level to watch: 5074 ---5072
Reports to watch:
Existing Home Sales
10:00 am EST
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 am EST
Our last call on the S&P500 (SPX) couldn't have gone better as the Bearish Megaphone pattern we expected (April 05, see chart below) was eventually materialized and easily hit on Tuesday our 5050 Target:
At the moment the index is below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the main Support since November 03 2023 and is headed towards the 1D MA100...
S&P500 has formed today a Death Cross on the 4H timeframe after 8 months (August 14th 2023), turning bearish on the 1D technical outlook as well (RSI = 37.122, MACD = -81.00, ADX = 53.782) as yesterday it crossed under the 1D MA50 for the first time since November 3rd 2023. Both are technically very bearish developments and according to the last 4H Death Cross, we...
By examining the ES1! 4-hour chart (S&P), we can figure out that, the market structure is bearish, so we looking for a sell position.
In that case, the price had a bearish reaction to all of the bearish Pd Array, so we can expect a bearish reaction on the balance price range (BPR).
In my perspective, sell-side liquidity is a draw on liquidity. Until this...
The SPX retreated nearly 3% from its all-time highs following last week’s print showing a higher-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024. This marks a second consecutive month of accelerating CPI in the United States, which presents an obstacle for the FED in its more than two-year-long battle against inflation. Plus, it makes it increasingly...
The S&P500 index is trading inside a Channel Down.
Every break over the MA50 (4h) forms its Lower High and is a sell signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price as it is over the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 5125 (expected contact with the MA50 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is on a Rising Support, which is a Bullish Divergence in contrast with the Channel...
S&P has been trading in a range since April 4th sell off.
Neither buyers or sellers have any conviction in trading.
Level to watch: 5217.00 ----5215.00
Report to watch:
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 am EST
