FOMC Lockhart was the 4th Fed this week to imo be relatively Hawkish with his words, most notably reinforcing with the others brexits near-term stability saying "Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy" and " So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly". Most interestingly though was Lockharts view on the FOMC's positioning for future rate...
Bullard is the lone Fed official forecasting just one additional rate increase, and expects modest growth over the next two and a half years. But he reiterated Tuesday he's not expecting the economy to head south. However, did go out of his way to mention a relatively dovish point "We Have Some Ammunition if We Need it During Next Recession". Nonetheless he...
IMO the ECB minutes were the most dovish/ clearly directed statements out of the ECB for several months. Before this, and in the past several speakers comments, sentiment has been towards the hawkish/ stale side, citing "ECB has done enough" as the main rhetoric. The June Minutes however show a renewed positioning of the ECB, where they clearly imply they are...
Short AUDUSD is in my top 3 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. AUD is considered a riskier G10 currency cross, so AUD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit concurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for AUD due to...
Now that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the...
The best Idea to play BOJ and FOMC from a risk-averse perspective is to own both in a Long Straddle Strategy Dynamic Straddle: Long USDJPY & Short GBPJPY - TP from volatility & Event likely hoods TP levels = cannot be greedy else you may miss one trades exit point so <25 pips when it goes in your direction for each - total TP = 50pips as 2*25pips Reasoning...
A disappointing open from cable with a bears perspective. Gapping down 100 pips to 1.435 almost immediately puts my sell limit orders (at 146.5) in "unlikely" territory of being hit this week. On friday following the $ EMP report cable managed to rally to 1.458 - i was hopeful it would tick a few more pips upward before the slew of selling started as we move...
Price may test the upper trend line but long term target 1.05 region. Hawkish Fed VS Dovish ECB. Volatility ahead in June
As predicted we came down from ECB news down to 1.108-1.1100, down to the key trend line. EURUSD is now rejecting this trend line + 200 EMA + 50% Fib. Swing traders should look for tomorrow's news FOMC for a break past the 61.% Fibo and a break of the downtrend line shown. NEEDS TO BE CONFIRMED FOR LONGS!!!!
From low interest rates to more quantitative easing all over the globe from Europe to China to Brazil, fundamentals really boosted SPX last week. It absolutely crushed the upper levels, set by both the relative highs and by Fibonacci analysis. Monday, RBA minutes come out, and assuming they are dovish (which they have no reason not to be), we can expect SPX to...
PRICE HAS STRUGGLED TO BREAK THIS KEY RESISTANCE WHICH IS NOT A SURPRISE BECAUSE PRICE HAS ALWAYS STRUGGLED AT THIS LEVEL IN THIS PAIR DATING BACK TO 2008. A TRIPLE TOP FORMATION ON THE 1 HOUR CHART SHOWS BEARS ARE DEFENDING THIS LEVEL. WE HAVE RBNZ STATEMENT COMING OUT IN A COUPLE MINUETS SO I WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THEY ARE DOVISH. THERE'S A GOOD PROBABILITY THE...
PRICE HAS BROKEN OUT OF THE CHANNEL AND HAS NOW RETESTED IT ALONG WITH A SMALL STRUCTURE SUPPORT LEVEL, A HAMMER CANDLESTICK WAS FORMED SHOWING BUYERS HAS STEPPED IN. THIS SETUP IS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD LONG OPPORTUNITY BUT PERSONALLY I,LL BE WAITING TOMORROW TO SEE WHAT THE BOC GOV HAS TO SAY IN HIS SPEECH. IM HOPING FOR A DOVISH STATEMENT BECAUSE THIS WILL WEAKEN...
I'M ALREADY IN A SHORT POSITION BUT IF PRICE RETRACES UP TO MY SELL ZONE I WILL LOOK AT PRICE ACTION TO ADD IN ANOTHER POSITION AND TARGET 0.75000. I STRONGLY BELIEVE WE CAN GET TO THERE IN THE SHORT TERM BECAUSE THE LABOUR MARKET IN THE U.S KEEPS COMING OUT GOOD WHICH WILL HAVE INVESTORS/TRADERS SPECULATING A RATE HIKE AS EARLY AS JULY. ON TOP OF THAT AUD...
Price retraced back into important structure level. expecting selling pressure here. RBA gov stevens is speaking later and if hes dovish we should easily come down to atleast the swing low.
Recently each time there has been a flag pattern it was followed by an impulse move to the upside. another flag pattern just formed so we could advance to the upside which is also in confluence with some nice resistance turned support structure level. Scenario 2 is If price breaks this important support level then the next level i will be looking at to get long is...
looking to sell on any decent rally which is what we are getting now. Trendline is in confluence with the 0.618 fib level and support turned resistance structure. also in line with the fundamentals as the BOE are dovish.