Couple scenarios to consider here depending on the tone and remarks made by Yellen regarding monetary policy. Currently USD has been moving up but the move will only continue if Fed chair Yellen reinforces her comments made 2 weeks ago when they decided to raise rates again and stated they were still on track and serious about another rate hike in 2017 either in...
This charting shows the bullish breakout idea as I currently can see on the GBPJPY pair. Only IF we get the confirmed breakouts, tests and bull moves this will be in tact. Patterns & Confirmation Free Video Tutorial: www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
Voting member Lael Brainard maintained her mildly dovish stance, with the headline quotye being "case to tighten policy preemptively is less compelling" perhaps the most indicative of the dovish sentiment. The rest of the comments remained neutral-downbeat and didnt echo JPM's CEO's comments of "A 25-basis-point increase is a drop in the bucket," and Let's just...
Voting member Lael Brainard maintained her mildly dovish stance, with the headline quotye being "case to tighten policy preemptively is less compelling" perhaps the most indicative of the dovish sentiment. The rest of the comments remained neutral-downbeat and didnt echo JPM's CEO's comments of "A 25-basis-point increase is a drop in the bucket," and Let's just...
With lousy and direction-less equity markets today - Europe rollercoaster, US hibernating - let's take a look at Gold. The precious metal yielded a near-perfect bullish hammer candle today. I usually like to see those at the end of a longer downtrend, but would never want to ignore a hammer, when I see one. My longer-term technical work suggests a fresh bull...
RBNZ Monetary Policy Decision : 1. At 22:00GMT the RBNZ are expected to cut their OCR rate to 2% from 2.25% (25bps), further they will release their monpol statement and rate statement then too - with RBNZ Gov Wheeler speaking 1hr after the release. 2. The are a number of outcomes which are likely to or not to affect the NZD$ market, I will list the combinations...
Relatively poor delivery from the RBNZ, by the looks of the whipsaw the market wanted/ expected 50bps based on the AUD differential and the RBA rate cut last week 50bps or some alt policy (e.g. QE) seemed like the smart move to make. From here Kiwi and Aussie longs look preferential as the macro environment shifts to a yield seeking stance from monpol trading -...
Fed Dudley was speaking At A joint New York Fed, Indonesian Central Bank Seminar On Sunday evening when he left a mixed impression for the markets to digest - saying "it is premature to rule out an interest-rate increase this year" but then on the contrary saying "Raising Rates Prematurely Would Be Riskier Than Moving Slightly Too Late" and following up that...
Another argument for the BOJ outperform case - Post BOJ Buy $Yen @MRKT 111tp: 1. We know BOJ and JPY Govt Abe/ Aso have had many meetings post-brexit and as it follows the JPY Govt have announced today that they will deliver a fiscal stimulus package of 28trn - which was to the very right of the curve (10-30 was talked about). - This in mind, imo it is...
AM 2:30GMT Ausssie Inflation prints are released these are key for determining their August Policy Decision 1. IMO a 1.0%yoy CPI print shows a further 0.3% contraction in their yearly CPI, this should be sufficient to push the RBA to cutting their OCR by 25bps, similarly a 0.3%qoq CPI will be needed in conjunction to show that inflation is growing at a slow...
The Govenor of the RBNZ is speaking in 16 hours time - there could be significant up/ downside volatility in Kiwi - as we have seen after the past 3wks where the RBNZ have gone through the full hawk-dove cycle in their inferences/ rhetoric. We had RBNZ Spencer's comments on house inflation back on the 7th of July which wrote off an RBNZ OCR cut - sending kiwi$ to...
IMO Draghi was dovish on the margin as expected - once again reiterating the ECB commitment to targets with " If Warranted, Will Act By Using All Available Instruments". Further, he was very pessimistic on many fronts, especially the ECBs key target inflation saying "Inflation Rates Likely to Remain Very Low In Next Few Months" and " Risks to Growth Outlook Remain...
USDJPY: 1 . Been watching $yen closely as my top 2 trades this week (along with GU). As expected/ foretasted 107 was the next key risk sentiment resistance level after 104 and after buying the 104 breakout i have confidence/ advise buying the 107 breakout - we have now crossed the 3m moving average at 106 which provides support/ confirms bullish move. 2 Risk...
On the margin RBA remained in line with previous meetings, adding little but still keeping it on the dovish side imo. Once again, as in previous minutes (and from several other central banks) RBA continued to communicate the necessity of "watching key data" to drive future policy decisions. Interestingly though, they also mentioned the negative impact of a strong...
Short NZDUSD based on low CPI/ inflation = an RBNZ OCR cut is 90% likely - 105 mins after market open at 23:45GMT NZD releases their June CPI print. - In all RBNZ mandates they reiterate how they consider CPI to be their "main/ sole" target or dictator of the monetary policy they set (check any of their minutes etc). - Their target is 2%, plus recently they...
The Gross underpricing of ECB and FOMC Monetary Policy Changes - A fully-priced medium-term equilibrium Lower coming? EURUSD: *Short EURUSD 3m-12m Duration: 1/2lots @1.11 - 1.07TP1; 1.04-5TP2 1.01TP3 1. On Decemeber 2nd the ECB cut their rate by 10bps to 0.05%, paradoxically this actually caused EURUSD to rally higher. Thus this is a mispricing as...
End of Week Summary: 1. On the week we saw risk outperform safe havens for the first time since the brexit vote and the SPX and DJ30 set new all time highs by 2% and 1.2% respectively - somewhat encouraging given this was the longest period post-crisis that equity indexes have had since new highs, with a total time of apprx 1 year. 2. Given the articles...
IMO Mark Carney was very dovish on the margin, certainly reinforcing their/ my view of an August cut being 90% on the table. The most supportive statements were "MonPol Important In Cushioning Effects Of Any Relapse In Recovery In Months & Quarters Ahead", "The MPC Does Not Have The ''Luxury '' and "More Should Be Done To Cushion The Effects Of Negative Shocks" -...