After a massive 8H trend down, EURNZD made a bounce north. Now there is conflict with a Daily trend heading south. I explore the probabilities. Have a look.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to trade securities. Your losses are your own should you take a position. This means you sue yourself if you lose your money.
Oil has taken a a more decisive turn. I focus on the 4H time frame review other time frames briefly.
My methodology is transparent and reproducible by everybody. I explain in this screen cast how I limit to what extent the market proves me wrong, but at the same time capitalise on when the market says I'm right in my probability estimates.
Anything can happen in the next few hours. Up or down? Theory of curves on Gold seems to indicate probability is north (greater than south). No guarantees. All you can do is take an acceptable loss. No loss - no gain! The choice is yours.
Several important things converge on UK Oil price (on weekly chart) creating probabilities for the south on most lower time frames:
1. Original Grade A ATR switch for the south.
2. Bullish rebellion into a near 61.8% Fib
3. Weak squeeze momentum rebellion (so far).
4. Horizontal zone of congestion near recent price.
5. VMA resistance level.
Note that VMA and...
Horizontal wedge patterns are not easy. Some people believe they will break up at the top of trend, while others believe the opposite. All one can do if shoring is take a reasonable stop-loss to include the potential for spikes and false breakouts for the north.
Base on higher time frame analysis I favour the south, but this is not a recommendation to short.
AUDJPY is in a critical zone on the 3D time frame. This is one to get ready to short, on a lower time frame. Price is struggling in the congestion zone, which contains a heavy bearish investor sentiment. This does not mean price is bound to head south. It means that the probability estimate from this time frame is for the south. For every probability in one...
I see AUDNZD near a critical ATR trend indicator position, just above an 'investor zone' and in a critical congestion zone. The probability is usually for the south in this situation. This is not a prediction.
As this is at the end of long trend south. If it moves south at all - I do not expect much travel south before rebellions north. Price sometimes rises...
In this shorter screencast I give three reasons why I come to an opinion that Bitcoin may surprise. This is not encouragement for traders to take long positions. Whatever traders do, please ensure that stoplosses are truly acceptable. No gambling please.
Will resistance be respected or ?
- Major bullish engulfing candles in the mix.
- EMA's look like they may cross soon indicating a change of trend.
The next candle close could tell us what we need to know.
AUDUSD is spotted on 4 time frames. Importantly the big bearish pressure comes from the weekly.
1. There is some slight weakening of the bullish rebellion on the weekly and daily.
2. With the big wave of bear pressure visible on the weekly, I estimate a 51% probability to the down side on the daily.
3. The bulls may not be allowed much more wriggle-room on 4...