Friends,
This pair is quite difficult to grasp from a fundamental perspective, as both $EUR and $JPY are expected to under-perform. Yet, there could potentially be a trade opp here, using my prop predictive/forecasting model
FUNDAMENTAL DATA:
First, $EUR's recent negative deposit rate combined with ECB's option of turning to large-scale asset purchases are...
Everything is said on the chart. One can see my previous analysis published. It looks like we can buy at around 101.5 and sell around 103.5 The swing trade model.....
With the reversal at ~102.50 the descending wedge pattern is maturing. I am playing the short side down near support but in the big picture I am bullish once the pattern completes. Descending wedges are typically bullish continuation patterns.
The pair may face a little correction towards %50 of Fibo retracement i.e 102.0XXX, however, baring in mind FED's decision ,the tapering schedule and BoJ decision, the pair is still on the strong side for the USD. In other words, even though there may be a correction even to 101.5, on a medium term, it is long for the USDJPY pair in favor of USD unless a polical...
For the record - Looking at two benchmark values (XAU and JPY relative to USD, expressed in relative strength terms).
Expecting persistent decline in Gold, as has been the continued case herein.
Expecting strengthening of the USD against JPY, mainly driven by:
1 - $TNX rate increase
2 - Japanese Govt bond rate decrease
3 - Japan persistent QE + ZIRP +...
The shooting star pattern did not play out and with the bullish candle today price may push its way to the down sloping trend line before reversing. Price can still move higher from here without invalidating the trade theory.
Friends,
In case you had missed one of the many signals I release via my Twitter alias, @4xForecaster, here is a repost of the tweet from this June 03rd, 2014:
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"$CADJPY - Short opp @ 93.995 - SL trader's tolerance risk (mine: 94.03 = 93.995 + spread)
- S/T TP@ 93.371
- L/T TP@ 91.489 - High...
USDJPY is a nice pair having mechanical behaviour to political and economic statements and decision.
Remember when FEd decided QE1, USD shrink against the YEN, but when BoJ decided to put its QE, it was the otherway around.
At the present, we do have FED's Tappering vs Boj decision to put an end to the QE. But BoJ push really hard the QE. where as FED's QE1+2+3...
The future of USDJPY pair is in the hands of the FED. BoJ made its announcement in the past week and decided to put an end to the Quantitative easing. On a very long term basis, USD vs JPY fight should end with USD being on the winning side. The "Historical" trading range of USDJPY is between 99 and 104 when the market is not distorted by Central Banks action...
USDJPY is floating in a large band between 103,5 and 101 since JAnuary 2014. It was an easy trading. Around 103 you short and at around 101 you go long.
After BoJ announcement of the tightening of the monetary policy, and the tappering, the balance and the swing would have been almost the same with a rising trend in favor of USD.
But there is a new situation...
In my view, political agenda , economic agenda and the behaviour of EURO against USD will give the direction and the impetus for USDJPY. On a purely mechanical point of view, BoJ is still printing a huge amount of Yen comparing to the calendar of FED where Yellen is still sticking to the tapering.
On the Other hand, ECB President Draghi, will make his statement...
Friends,
As indicated in recent predictive/forecasting model commentary, USD has gained strength. Applying a EW model, one might appreciate a supportive argument for the proposed bullish bias of the predictive/forecasting model.
Fundamentals also suggest strengthening of the greenback against a continued dilutive monetary policy.
Net outlook is BULLISH for...
Friends,
As the stock market is turning increasingly wary and talk of a market crash abound, other risk aversion behaviors have transpired through Forex pairs. Here, in particular, USDJPY fell significantly, keeping lower supports exposed.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING DATA:
Predictive analysis and forecasting system remains bearish in the short-tern, but...
