4xForecaster
Short

Bearish Signal & Targets | $EUR $JPY ##ECB #BOJ #Forex $USD

FX:EURJPY   Euro / Japanese Yen
Friends,

This pair is quite difficult to grasp from a fundamental perspective, as both $EUR and $JPY are expected to under-perform. Yet, there could potentially be a trade opp here, using my prop predictive/forecasting model


FUNDAMENTAL DATA:

First, $EUR's recent negative deposit rate combined with ECB's option of turning to large-scale asset purchases are two fundamental drives that would guarantee bears dominance in the medium and long range.

Second, $JPY is expected to remain under pressure, as #BoJ's QE remains the dominant feature. Japanese investors would probably add further bearish pressure on the #Yen as they consider better returns from foreign bonds. Institutional consensus is thus bearish , with an expectation that $USDJPY might possibly reach $110.00 by the end of Q4 2014.

Considering both fundamental bearish outlooks, one has to turn to other discreet tool to decipher any potential trade opportunity. This is when my prop predictive/forecasting model comes handy.


TECHNICAL DATA:

Before I define the bearish targets which have been issued by the predictive/forecasting mode, I must define what upside risk exists based on the recent price action.

Looking at recent price action, several R/S levels are worth defining - Here is a preliminary chart I am consulting to define these level:

$EURJPY - 4-Hour:
-
A quick correction first and an explication:

1 - The bullish pattern defined is a Shark . A correction is in order here, as the Shark starts its point enumeration at "zero', then completes its pattern at Point-C. This is so, because it often acts as the "gate-keeper" to the 5-0 pattern, which is defined and completes at the 50 percent (hence 5-0 ) point of the Shark's last defining impulse leg (i.e.: the B-C leg, completing the Shark pattern at Point-C) - For added information on this pattern, I would consult Mr. Scott Carney's book and site: Harmonic Trading, where the pattern are well defined therein.

The first trading range defined above the 50% level is defined by the predictive model that sees a significant resistance/reversal potential there. So, I have chosen that zone as a probable entry level in consideration of a short position.

The second, higher range defines what I had defined before as the EAGLE (i.e.: (E)xtremely (AG)gressive (L)evel of (E), which is a prior strategy for counter-trend entries). It would define a last ditch consideration for a short, affording a much lower, much preferable risk/reward ratio.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

The prop model has thus defined the following bearish targets, as it signaled already a bearish market reversal confirmation:

1 - TG-1 = 135.232 - 17 JUN 2014, moderate probability

2 - TG-2 = 129.950 - 17 JUN 2014, moderate probability

and

3 - TG-Lo = 124.537 - 17 JUN 2014, low probability


The probability qualifiers are in reference to price's ability to ever reach these levels. As mentioned in prior analyses, a TG-Lo/TG-Hi are typically referencing extreme targets of low-probility, but if and once price ever reached these levels, they tend to act as reversal-low and reversal-top levels, respectively


OVERALL:

The fundamental analyses are not supportive of any distinct directional clues. However, the model did signal a bearish market reversal. Given the possibility of reactive upside, I caution the trader to look for overhead exposures. The ones I have defined are based on personal research. So, "do the due" diligence.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


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Twitter: @4xForecaster, if you'd like to follow future analyses and forecasts in Forex, metals, indices and bitcoin
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Comments

I really appreciate what you have done for friends
+1 Reply
Here is the chart I referenced in the H4 level:



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
Here is the Shark pattern that dominates the field ... The 50% line implies a 5-0 Pattern pending completion:



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Comment removed
itsheng 4xForecaster
Hi David,

Thank you very much for posting the update! Did you happen to comment on the wrong thread? I guess everyone is tracking the other one you have for BTCUSD.

Thanks again for all your work here! It's very much appreciated!

Regards,
Sheng
+1 Reply
Thank you! Will erase and ppost on appropriate chart.
- David
Reply
28 JUN 2014 - Update: TARGET HIT Per Forecast:

Twitter release:

"$EURJPY - Target Hit: Price retraced to and rolled, as forecast - thttps://www. via @UnknownUnicorn305 "



As of this day, price reached target @138.876 multiple times without ever crossing over it. Expecting added downside as per larger timeframe, as follows:



Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
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