Time – 3 Nov 5am AEDT / 6PM GMT (Jay Powell speaks at 05:30 AEDT) Central bank meetings are just so important to sentiment and market structure – when we’re trading a major market theme, such as inflation and rising interest rates, this is the market’s chance to mark-to-market policy changes and how the collective in the bank guide our expectations for future...
There is a tug of war situation among the central banks to hike interest rates. What is the bad and the good that will come out from this? i. Last week of October, European Central Bank officials announced another massive 75 basis point hike, increasing interest rates at the fastest pace in the history of the euro currency. ii. This week, the Federal Reserve is...
One of the more watched interest rate settings in markets is the so-called ‘terminal’ interest rate – the point in the interest rate futures curve that reflects the highest point of future rate expectations – said differently, where the market feels a central bank could take its key policy rate by a specific date. For those who really want to understand fed funds...
Content: • Why CPI must be below 5.3%? • Can we invest or trade or hedge into inflation? Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a...
The Federal Reserve announces it frankly. We don't know if raising the interest rate will lead to an economic recession, and this is the only way to stop inflation! The probability of a recession is 99.9%, -According to the Head of Fixed Income in the Fund Management Division at Bank of Montreal, BMO. - Bank of Montreal this month, expected inflation to be...
Some experts use such rules as hiking rate = bear market and falling rate = bull market but if we compare the fed rate with the BTC price we can see that the price is not always follow this rule. Trully say in most cases it don`t. Let's dive deeper into it! ______________ 📊THE BULL MARKETS: 1️⃣ 2015-2017 – the rate is growing. 2️⃣ 2018-2019 - the rate isn`t...
In 2021, as the US central bank and the Secretary of the Treasury continued to call rising inflation a “transitory” and pandemic-inspired event, the bond market declined. Bonds watched prices rise while the economists were pouring over stale data. Meanwhile, the Fed and government planted inflationary seeds that sprouted during the second half of 2020, bloomed in...
All over financial news we're being told that the yield curve is inverting, spreads are flattening, the recession clock is ticking, there's impending doom around every corner. CNBC, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, The Economist, you pick your favorite news source and they're talking about 2's and 10's, 10's and 30's, it's...
Recently, a lot of people have been talking about the possibility of a multi-year recession. I don't think that is a clear depiction of the current situation, but I am aware that the idea stems from a lack of understanding of bear market structures, and influence of market sentiment. So in this post, I'll be going over Ken Fishers' rules and conditions that must...
How does FED affect money supply? Before, we get into our main topic, we just wanted to clarify a small common misconception. Quick answer to the question above is the monetary policy; however, a lot of people confuse monetary and fiscal policies or use the terms interchangeably. Indeed, both are macroeconomic tools used to stimulate/slow down the economy....
In this post, I'll be referring to the historical chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) in order to explain my perspective on risks associated with the market, and how to respond to current market conditions as a trader and investor. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only . In my previous educational post, I discussed...
In this post, I'll be demonstrating how the Fed's rate hikes affect the equity market (or how they don't), through historical examples and analyses of market psychology. This is an issue that has been going on for a while, and one that has caught the attention of all market participants. Yes, tapering and rate hikes aren’t necessarily good news, but I don’t think...
Much of the massive amount of new money the Fed is printing is going into Zombie Companies. How Zombie Companies Survive Zombie Companies are firms that don’t survive by producing value for their customers. Instead, they survive by parasitically draining resources from the overall economy by borrowing at near 0% interest from the Federal Reserve. The Federal...
Here I tried to show the movement of the day when Fed announces its unchanged Interest Rate decisions during the last 6 times. As you can see, the gold prices had been quite volatile during the last Fed decision on June the 16th and shed 1.45%. Since then, the yellow metal has not been able to overcome the loss and is in the downward trend. Please note that...
Hello,Traders! The fears of inflation are now the reality, with the official FED number showing that inflation went from 1.6% in 2020 to 4.2% in April 2021, which means that the situation "on the ground" is even worse. Even just by looking at the charts of lumber, copper , and other commodities , while finding out that all the cars in your local dealership are...
(see link to Part 1 attached below) Hello,Traders! As we found out in Part 1, the FED and The Treasury added 5.3 Trillion dollars to the money supply , with 3 Trillion Dollars being spent, not invested and all that coming from borrowing, not taxes, which would have created price inflation even without the supply shock. However, the supply side was also...
Hello traders! In the previous Educational Post (4 of 20) we learned what FIST (Fundamentals, Intermarket, Sentiment, Technicals) is about and why you need to use this trading framework in your trading. I strongly believe that incorporating a range of analytical disciplines returns better trading results than focusing only on one tool. This is how big players play...
Refer to the chart.