Will the 2020s look like the 1970s with unstable inflation and soaring prices? Or will we return to the 2010s with low stable inflation rates of around 2%? There is a case to be made both ways.
Those who worry about the possibility of durably higher inflation argue that the quarter century of low, stable inflation rates was a consequence of the end of the Cold War, globalization and just-in-time supply lines.
Now, many of those factors have reversed. Military spending is on the rise worldwide as global tensions mount. Nearshoring and friendshoring are moving production out of China and into places like Vietnam and Mexico but at an increased cost. Finally, just-in-time-delivery has proven to be fragile and creates a strong potential for supply chain disruptions.
These factors, combined with shrinking workforces in China, Korea, Japan and much of Europe, could put upward pressure on wages and inflation.
But there is a counter argument: technology continues to advance rapidly, and generative AI could pose a threat to many middle-class service professions. And inflation has begun coming down in many countries, led by the United States.
In the U.S., core inflation has fallen from 6.6% YoY to just 4.1%, and most of the remaining increase has come from one component: owners’ equivalent rent. Outside of owners’ equivalent rent, U.S. inflation is running at just 2.1% year-on-year. After a massive global tightening of rates, economies may also slow significantly, reducing inflationary pressures.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com/cme/
By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Those who worry about the possibility of durably higher inflation argue that the quarter century of low, stable inflation rates was a consequence of the end of the Cold War, globalization and just-in-time supply lines.
Now, many of those factors have reversed. Military spending is on the rise worldwide as global tensions mount. Nearshoring and friendshoring are moving production out of China and into places like Vietnam and Mexico but at an increased cost. Finally, just-in-time-delivery has proven to be fragile and creates a strong potential for supply chain disruptions.
These factors, combined with shrinking workforces in China, Korea, Japan and much of Europe, could put upward pressure on wages and inflation.
But there is a counter argument: technology continues to advance rapidly, and generative AI could pose a threat to many middle-class service professions. And inflation has begun coming down in many countries, led by the United States.
In the U.S., core inflation has fallen from 6.6% YoY to just 4.1%, and most of the remaining increase has come from one component: owners’ equivalent rent. Outside of owners’ equivalent rent, U.S. inflation is running at just 2.1% year-on-year. After a massive global tightening of rates, economies may also slow significantly, reducing inflationary pressures.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com/cme/
By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available here: www.cmegroup.com/disclaimer.html