XRPUSD
XRP has always been a late boomer and considering all the FUD and the mist around it, it would be smart to play a contrarian role and just to be ready for the possibility of “melting faces” to the upside (with a small chunk of disposable capital). It is massively lagging behind other major cryptos, but for us “veterans” who did not enter the market in the last month, this is something which we are quite familiar with. Now, of course, there is no rule about history repeating, but we can sure learn from it.
I will not speak on the topic of SEC lawsuit, please do check Legal Briefs youtube channel, where attorney Jeremy Hogan gives more clarity on the matter and a lot of useful insight. I strongly believe that all possible known facts are already priced in and readable on the chart. And I am here to provide you with what I think are the cruicial levels on possible future price actions of XRP.
XRP/BTC
Looking back:
* All major bull parabolic breakouts of XRP happened late in relation to other major cryptos;
* All parabolic breakouts on USD pair happened in strong relation to the BTC pair, when we either had a strong breakout or we touched-down 0.00001490 level before powering up rocket engines (also corelated with 21 day EMA – dotted purple line on XRPBTC chart)
* We have strong/major resistance on BTC pair at the green line. Roughly 0.00009049 level.
* We have minor resistance on BTC pair just above 0.000045 level.
* The accumulation range which we were mostly “stuck in” throughout last 3 years is the same as consolidation range after 2017 bull run from less than a cent to more than 30 cents per USD. If we touch it again, I will be opening new positions. Target range is betwen 0.29 and 0.37 USD. I must point out, that another drop to that levels is possible (less and less by hour and hour as total crypto market is showing some decent strenght at the moment of writing).
* A lot of people are focusing at 0.55 and 0.60 levels, but I would like to bring more attention to higher time frame price action. Looking at the chart, the orange line is cruicial, as a daily close above 0.702 gives us a much higher probability of continuation higher (actual parabola up)
Looking forward:
* As stated above we need a breakout on USD (0.70) and BTC (0.00001490) pair to actually have a chance of having parabolic bull run like we had in the past.
* Any dips bellow 0.37 on USD pair are for buying.
* If we go bellow 0.21 it will most probably be continuing “melting faces” to the downside and we have to step back and re-asses general situation. I do think thats scenario is very likely.
* I strongly believe that, if we get a daily close above 0.70 and we stay above, we will be witnessing similar parabolic moves to the upside (ignoring 1 dollar mark), possibly reaching more towards 2 USD and above with a considerable shakeout targeting the dotted purple line at aroun 1.18 and if that one holds, we are most probably shooting up higher to around 2.75 area.
* We must actively monitor price action and apply Elliot wave theory to see what possible upside targets actually are, a lot of that depends on XRP/BTC pair. The crypto market has drastically changed in the last year or so where big portion of market capitalisation from total is going towards progressive new projects (De-Fi, NFT mostly) from direction of “dino” coins, such as EOS, XTZ, XRP, LTC, ETC and similar. You can understand this better by checking respectable pairs of those coins with BTC, where BTC valuation is in strong decline in relation to their USD valuation. That is also why, I sincerely think that touching the green line (0.00009049) on XRPBTC pair is the best possible scenario, which most likely wont happen. I am more leaning towards more conservative narrative of being happy, if we actually settle in roughly half-way through upper range of the historical channel at around 0.00005. I hate giving predictions, but for better understandings: if BTC has a blow off top at around 100k and XRP reaches its parabolic top at Bitcoins dead cat bounce after that at hypothetically speaking around 80k, that gives XRP estimate valuation of 4 USD per XRP (80k x 0.00005). So you see, everything depends on the relation of XRPUSD and XRPBTC and that “love” relationship really needs some therapy.
The juicy summary:
* Best possible scenario: 7.00 – 8.00 XRP/USD
* Conservative/optimal scenario 4.00 – 5.00 XRP/USD
* Most highly scenario is getting that juicy 1.18 XRP/USD
* There is a chance that the rocket engine will fail and we will top out in range betwen 0.70 and 1.18
* There is little downside in comparison to the upside nevertheless.
To determine which path will materialise, lets keep our minds sharp and count those waves as they print out on charts, as we go.
XRPUSD
And dont forget, “when you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable...must be the truth".
Trade active
Comment:
Broke out of the lower range was quite obvious. Conservative/Optimal scenario target moved to a range around 7 USD. Best possible scenario moved to 10 USD. From know on, I will wrap up my exit plan according to XRPBTC pair. I have added to the position around 1 USD.
Comment:
Comment:
Interesting moment in time, where we are reclaiming key support for bullish market continuation on grand macro scale. Adding to my positions here.