In my last chart, we looked at XRP's weekly RSI, which had just hit an all time historic low. But because it was an unprecedented move, there were very few data points to try to put the potential ROI into context. So today I'm having a look at XRP's daily RSI. Because there's a bit more noise in the daily RSI, I am being rather selective with my data points, and only looking at points when the RSI dropped below 30, rallied, then tested the RSI exponential moving average for support (which XRP has just done in it's current move)
So.. as you can see, over the last two and a half years XRP's daily RSI has sunk below 30 before finding support above it's exponential trend 6 times (including the current move).
From Dec 23 ’20 to April 25 ’21 XRP rallied 787%
From June 22 ’21 to June 29 ’21 XRP rallied 44%
From July 20 ’21 to Sept 6 ’21 XRP rallied 175%
From Dec 4 ’21 to Dec 23 ’21 XRP rallied 58%
From Jan 22 ’22 to Feb 9 ’22 XRP rallied 71%
Excluding it's 2021 bull market rally (of 787%) the price, on average, rallied 88% from it's low. In contrast, the current move has only rallied by 37% (when it briefly tested $0.46, which occurred BEFORE finding support on the exponential trend). Looking at the most anemic rally this buy signal has given, that of the June 2021 rally, which only returned 44% and lasted 7 a whopping days, we can see that historically speaking, the best case scenario for bears, is that XRP will form a double bottom, retesting $0.33. While a double bottom is still highly probable (if not guaranteed) I see the potential trade as a question of taking a high risk short for a potential 18% downside vs a low risk long at the current range for a potential +40% upside. And 40% upside from here for XRP is actually incredibly cautious, as in every case (excluding the June '21 flop), the rallies broke at least one over head resistance range, which at the moment for XRP, it's nearest overhead resistance is at $0.58 (which we're currently 40% off of) with the next resistance range sitting at $0.68, which would represent a 110% bounce from the recent low of $0.33 & 71% rally from our current price of $0.40.
So.. as you can see, over the last two and a half years XRP's daily RSI has sunk below 30 before finding support above it's exponential trend 6 times (including the current move).
From Dec 23 ’20 to April 25 ’21 XRP rallied 787%
From June 22 ’21 to June 29 ’21 XRP rallied 44%
From July 20 ’21 to Sept 6 ’21 XRP rallied 175%
From Dec 4 ’21 to Dec 23 ’21 XRP rallied 58%
From Jan 22 ’22 to Feb 9 ’22 XRP rallied 71%
Excluding it's 2021 bull market rally (of 787%) the price, on average, rallied 88% from it's low. In contrast, the current move has only rallied by 37% (when it briefly tested $0.46, which occurred BEFORE finding support on the exponential trend). Looking at the most anemic rally this buy signal has given, that of the June 2021 rally, which only returned 44% and lasted 7 a whopping days, we can see that historically speaking, the best case scenario for bears, is that XRP will form a double bottom, retesting $0.33. While a double bottom is still highly probable (if not guaranteed) I see the potential trade as a question of taking a high risk short for a potential 18% downside vs a low risk long at the current range for a potential +40% upside. And 40% upside from here for XRP is actually incredibly cautious, as in every case (excluding the June '21 flop), the rallies broke at least one over head resistance range, which at the moment for XRP, it's nearest overhead resistance is at $0.58 (which we're currently 40% off of) with the next resistance range sitting at $0.68, which would represent a 110% bounce from the recent low of $0.33 & 71% rally from our current price of $0.40.
Comment:
Oh look, we're all the way down to $0.34 (about to form a double bottom) yet the daily RSI is only down to 30, as opposed to 21 (where it was when we hit $0.33 in May). That's called bullish divergence ladies and gentlemen.