sector ETF charts show the blow off and distribution of tops
Schwab put out a great letter yesterday showing various ways to value the market. While the market valuation has improved slightly, on most measures, the investors are getting very little bang for the buck. I enjoyed the article very much and will give the link here if youre interested
www.schwab.com/...uity-valuations?cmp=em-QYD...
In summary, market aint cheap.
Scanning over the big picture views on 8 etf sectors, boy do those charts look scary. I really cant believe how so many "picture traders" believe the market has bottomed and will go straight up from here. I get it. Draw a line, good enough right? But after living through this learning experiment for almost 20 years, this dont look right.
sure, maybe the fed and gov can devalue the dollars and therefor make the number go up on everything. fine, so be it, im a metal bull anyway. I got stock, fine. but thats not real wealth. its a robbery. borrow all u can and let them devalue.
but as far as trying to find value, its not really on sales. half of would be fair on the growth stocks. half off would be fair on the value stocks too. alot of stocks have 2% or 3% earnings yields and growth in future dont look so hot. 1 and 2 year notes are paying near 5%. this market doesnt make sense.
I remember in 2006, 2007, 2008, things were confusing too. I honestly believe the big boys prefer it that way. Institutions and whales cant unload if the public doesnt stay in long enough anyway. Bear market rallys are just reloading rallys for the big boys.
If you dont learn to do your own homework, youre just going to get used and abused.
www.schwab.com/...uity-valuations?cmp=em-QYD...
In summary, market aint cheap.
Scanning over the big picture views on 8 etf sectors, boy do those charts look scary. I really cant believe how so many "picture traders" believe the market has bottomed and will go straight up from here. I get it. Draw a line, good enough right? But after living through this learning experiment for almost 20 years, this dont look right.
sure, maybe the fed and gov can devalue the dollars and therefor make the number go up on everything. fine, so be it, im a metal bull anyway. I got stock, fine. but thats not real wealth. its a robbery. borrow all u can and let them devalue.
but as far as trying to find value, its not really on sales. half of would be fair on the growth stocks. half off would be fair on the value stocks too. alot of stocks have 2% or 3% earnings yields and growth in future dont look so hot. 1 and 2 year notes are paying near 5%. this market doesnt make sense.
I remember in 2006, 2007, 2008, things were confusing too. I honestly believe the big boys prefer it that way. Institutions and whales cant unload if the public doesnt stay in long enough anyway. Bear market rallys are just reloading rallys for the big boys.
If you dont learn to do your own homework, youre just going to get used and abused.