Overview: Weeks-long consolidation in the 50's has provided either an extremely tightly coiled springboard for the next move up, or a clear sign that bulls are tired, the market's out of buyers, and a major wipeout is imminent.
TA: I have to say, the TA, without any additional insights from on-chain analytics, would have me extremely worried here. Instead, I'm seeing a consistent decline in coins held on exchanges, a corrected NUPL that allows for months more upside, and a steady drip of demand from buyers who aren't yet public about their holdings.
What I don't like: MASSIVE divergence (unfortunately of the bearish variety) between price, volume, and RSI. A pullback at these levels, if not bought up at 51k, would feel devastating, although it wouldn't be, to the bull run. From there, I think we'd fall swiftly to the mid-40s. It would be interesting to see what happened then, but hopefully that won't happen, and here's why I think it won't.
What I do like: Suspiciously weak selling pressure near ATH levels. I think everyone is expecting this to go way higher, and on-chain indicators support this demonstrating an increasing number of coins moving off-exchange to wallets historically reluctant to sell much, ever. So, rather than distribution, I see this as accumulation. The fundamentals of bitcoin have never been stronger, and perhaps most importantly, the infrastructure for the biggest of players in the world exists so that no matter the time horizon, any institution can move in as gradually as they like.
Beyond TA: April is historically bullish, and despite the dollar's recent bullishness due to interest rate hike speculation, risk-on assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies continue to thrive. If we don't eff up the re-opening effort, we could see an economic explosion on par with the roaring 20's of the last century (let's not talk about what happened afterwards...yet).
Final comments: It's hard not to be bullish here. I'm optimistic, but aware of the potential downside. I think the chance for a significant pullback from here is below 30%. For a trader, that's about the best you could hope for.
Stay safe and manage your risk. Good luck.
TA: I have to say, the TA, without any additional insights from on-chain analytics, would have me extremely worried here. Instead, I'm seeing a consistent decline in coins held on exchanges, a corrected NUPL that allows for months more upside, and a steady drip of demand from buyers who aren't yet public about their holdings.
What I don't like: MASSIVE divergence (unfortunately of the bearish variety) between price, volume, and RSI. A pullback at these levels, if not bought up at 51k, would feel devastating, although it wouldn't be, to the bull run. From there, I think we'd fall swiftly to the mid-40s. It would be interesting to see what happened then, but hopefully that won't happen, and here's why I think it won't.
What I do like: Suspiciously weak selling pressure near ATH levels. I think everyone is expecting this to go way higher, and on-chain indicators support this demonstrating an increasing number of coins moving off-exchange to wallets historically reluctant to sell much, ever. So, rather than distribution, I see this as accumulation. The fundamentals of bitcoin have never been stronger, and perhaps most importantly, the infrastructure for the biggest of players in the world exists so that no matter the time horizon, any institution can move in as gradually as they like.
Beyond TA: April is historically bullish, and despite the dollar's recent bullishness due to interest rate hike speculation, risk-on assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies continue to thrive. If we don't eff up the re-opening effort, we could see an economic explosion on par with the roaring 20's of the last century (let's not talk about what happened afterwards...yet).
Final comments: It's hard not to be bullish here. I'm optimistic, but aware of the potential downside. I think the chance for a significant pullback from here is below 30%. For a trader, that's about the best you could hope for.
Stay safe and manage your risk. Good luck.