This is not meant to be investment advice. I am legitimately asking for feedback from this analysis. I will keep this very brief.
First bearish impulse lasted 51 days where we capitulated from $20k to $6k. It was also a 70% drop.
First bullish impulse lasted 27 days where we impulsed from $6k to $12k. That was a 100% increase and retraced the bearish impulse to around the 38.2% level.
Second bearish impulse has lasted 284 days and coincidentally was also a 73% drop. Very close to the 70% drop we had at $20k.
Now we are on an obvious bullish impulse and we've gone up also about 103%. Also very close to the 100% we did in February 2018. Also, we've retraced to the 38.2% level from the bearish impulse.
We are still in the middle of this bullish impulse but the ratios are very similar. Going an additional week or two will take us to that 53% time based ratio from bullish vs bearish.
We won't really know what happens next until we turn around but are we going to see another 70% drop? I'm doubting that as it would take us around $2,000 but I'm getting close to believing we'll see a pull back, potentially to $5100 again, then a retest of $6350. Then we will evaluate what happens next.
Thoughts and comments welcome!
<3 -CE-
First bearish impulse lasted 51 days where we capitulated from $20k to $6k. It was also a 70% drop.
First bullish impulse lasted 27 days where we impulsed from $6k to $12k. That was a 100% increase and retraced the bearish impulse to around the 38.2% level.
Second bearish impulse has lasted 284 days and coincidentally was also a 73% drop. Very close to the 70% drop we had at $20k.
Now we are on an obvious bullish impulse and we've gone up also about 103%. Also very close to the 100% we did in February 2018. Also, we've retraced to the 38.2% level from the bearish impulse.
We are still in the middle of this bullish impulse but the ratios are very similar. Going an additional week or two will take us to that 53% time based ratio from bullish vs bearish.
We won't really know what happens next until we turn around but are we going to see another 70% drop? I'm doubting that as it would take us around $2,000 but I'm getting close to believing we'll see a pull back, potentially to $5100 again, then a retest of $6350. Then we will evaluate what happens next.
Thoughts and comments welcome!
<3 -CE-
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Here is the screenshot for easier viewing:
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First Bear Cycle
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Current Cycle:
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Lots of activity over the weekend. Here's an updated chart with the extension. One thing that was interesting is how we got a rejection at the 50% level. It would not surprise me to get up to the 61.8% which is at about 8400-8500 but more than likely we're going to see a significant pullback in the near future.
