Gold (XAUUSD): Bearish Signals Hint at Possible Drop to $1000!

Upon examining the monthly gold chart, it appears there could be a significant price drop, a secondary scenario in our analysis. We don't foresee a 50% decrease in the near future, though it's not impossible, especially if the market downturn affects all sectors, including gold. It's crucial to consider all possibilities due to market unpredictability, even a drop to $1000 per ounce.


This view is backed by a bearish RSI divergence since 1966 and signs that we might be completing the first 5-wave cycle, which could reach up to $3000 per ounce but should not exceed this level.

Currently, the apparent breakout seems to be a fake-out. Surpassing $3000 would mean our analysis underestimates the bullish potential.

Elliott Wave Theory suggests Wave 5 might break out from the trendline formed by Waves 1 and 3, create a fake-out, then sharply decline, aligning with our secondary scenario for gold. We plan to further explore and outline our primary scenario in the next section.

Anyway, when closely examining the 12-hour gold chart, we primarly anticipate a continued upward movement rather than a sharp downturn. We believe that the minor Wave 1 has concluded, and we should see a retracement to the 50-61.8% Fibonacci level, where we expect to find support at the High-Volume Node.

The recent upward trend has been quite extreme. Therefore, we predict finding support between $2,200 and $2,130, before potentially breaking through the $2,500 mark, which we expect to coincide with the completion of the major Wave (3) or minor Wave 3.