GOLD Price Awaits US NFP Data Amidst Dollar Consolidation

Gold Price Awaits US NFP Data Amidst Dollar Consolidation

Gold prices are showing signs of stabilization after two consecutive days of correction from an 11-month high. The recent consolidation of the United States Dollar (USD) has provided some respite to the precious metal, which had experienced downward pressure. However, the fate of gold remains uncertain as investors eagerly await the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, a crucial indicator that could shape the direction of both the USD and gold in the near term.

Gold Price Recap

Gold price (XAU/USD) is currently hovering around the $1,820 mark after bouncing back from a weekly low of $1,813 during the early Asian trading session on Friday. The precious metal is grappling with headwinds as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain its 'higher-for-longer' stance on interest rates. Market participants are looking to the highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls report for clarity on the state of the labor market.

Market Dynamics

The subdued tone surrounding the US Dollar can be attributed to a moderately optimistic sentiment in the Asian session, despite mixed developments in the Chinese property market. Nevertheless, the precious metal remains under pressure as higher US Treasury yields weigh on non-yielding assets like gold.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has retreated to 106.40 after pulling back from monthly highs. US Treasury yields have also eased, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.73%, while the 2-year yield remains at 5.02%.

Key Data and Market Focus

The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on September 30 improved to 207,000 from the previous reading of 205,000, surpassing market expectations of 210,000. Furthermore, the US Balance of Trade deficit was $58.3 billion, lower than the anticipated $62.3 billion and the $64.7 billion recorded in July.

The US employment data set to be released on Friday will be the focal point for traders. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 170,000, a decrease from the 180,000 additions reported in August. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to drop slightly from 3.8% to 3.7% in September, while Average Hourly Earnings are likely to rise by 4.3% year-on-year, consistent with the previous figure.

The outlook for Gold

Gold traders are closely monitoring the US Average Hourly Earnings data for September, the Nonfarm Payrolls report, and the Unemployment Rate. These data releases have the potential to induce market volatility and guide trading decisions. Depending on the outcome of the NFP report, gold prices may either make a push toward $1,850 and beyond in the event of a weak report or face headwinds if the data suggests the Fed could pursue another rate hike by year-end.

In Conclusion

Gold prices are stabilizing as the US Dollar consolidates, but the impending US Nonfarm Payrolls data release remains a significant driver of market sentiment. Investors are poised for potential market movements following the NFP release, with the direction of both the USD and gold hanging in the balance.


Our preference

Below 1851.000 look for further downside with 1805.00 & 1790.00 as targets.