Hello traders,
Gold has been consolidating in a range for quite a while and this is part of a larger high-top reversal pattern that will likely last until about the 3rd or so week of July. During this time, it is certainly possible for Gold to re-test 1750 or 1760 or even touch the 1780s. However, in the broader picture, there is a very low chance Gold spot prices actually make it to the all-important 1800 level on volume .
During this last push in the high-top consolidative pattern, the SPX is likely to pullback roughly 5-7% from Friday's close, and that will be supportive for Gold in the near-term. However, from late July and through the rest of the Summer, the SPX will touch and exceed ATHs and at this point Gold will fall into a larger corrective pattern.
COT remains high at near 260,000 and this is due to short-term hedges against the equity market that will eventually be sold by late July. Furthermore, miners are 15-20% (generally speaking) off their yearly highs because this push in spot prices is near-sighted.
We can expect significantly lower spot prices as we move through mid to late September to early October before the real bull run ignites late 2020 into early 2021.
Yes, the overall economic picture is "supportive" of Gold , however, the commodity market (like Gold ) is far more complex then ("central banks are printing money so Gold should go up").
--
For those who want to follow my daily technical and fundamental analysis on Discord, please message me for details at zSplit#9971.
--
Thank you.
Gold has been consolidating in a range for quite a while and this is part of a larger high-top reversal pattern that will likely last until about the 3rd or so week of July. During this time, it is certainly possible for Gold to re-test 1750 or 1760 or even touch the 1780s. However, in the broader picture, there is a very low chance Gold spot prices actually make it to the all-important 1800 level on volume .
During this last push in the high-top consolidative pattern, the SPX is likely to pullback roughly 5-7% from Friday's close, and that will be supportive for Gold in the near-term. However, from late July and through the rest of the Summer, the SPX will touch and exceed ATHs and at this point Gold will fall into a larger corrective pattern.
COT remains high at near 260,000 and this is due to short-term hedges against the equity market that will eventually be sold by late July. Furthermore, miners are 15-20% (generally speaking) off their yearly highs because this push in spot prices is near-sighted.
We can expect significantly lower spot prices as we move through mid to late September to early October before the real bull run ignites late 2020 into early 2021.
Yes, the overall economic picture is "supportive" of Gold , however, the commodity market (like Gold ) is far more complex then ("central banks are printing money so Gold should go up").
--
For those who want to follow my daily technical and fundamental analysis on Discord, please message me for details at zSplit#9971.
--
Thank you.
