Last week we saw Gold consolidate within a range between 1268-1280 areas. This was expected prior to a major news release (NFP- results Positive for USD.) and after a long term strong momentum trend has taken place. We knew this in the previous weeks longer term analysis which is still valid (link to related idea tagged). Towards the end of the week we had a big push down to major support caused by fundamentals then a quick and strong rejection.
To start this week we have bank holidays for USD, CAD and JPY so it could be a slow start to the week but the price action will be very important. Right now 1280 is the price to watch to determine whether we can retest the support or move up further to the 1290 price area which is in confluence with a downward trendline (resistance). Long term trend is still bearish probably until 1250 which seems like a real major support but that could be hit at a later time if we don't get past 1290. If infact 1290 gets broken we could start to see a trend change start.
Fundamentals are light this week.. mid week Fed meeting minutes will be of the most impact as fed members have been increasingly hawkish moving the chance of another rate hike this year to 77% from 70%. (credit to investing.com for those numbers).
To start this week we have bank holidays for USD, CAD and JPY so it could be a slow start to the week but the price action will be very important. Right now 1280 is the price to watch to determine whether we can retest the support or move up further to the 1290 price area which is in confluence with a downward trendline (resistance). Long term trend is still bearish probably until 1250 which seems like a real major support but that could be hit at a later time if we don't get past 1290. If infact 1290 gets broken we could start to see a trend change start.
Fundamentals are light this week.. mid week Fed meeting minutes will be of the most impact as fed members have been increasingly hawkish moving the chance of another rate hike this year to 77% from 70%. (credit to investing.com for those numbers).
Comment:
Price has moved into the critical zone.. will it return below the trendline or break resistance?
Comment:
Slowly starting a trend change, market structure now making HH and HL.
