XAUUSD Starting a new Mega Cycle. One last pull-back in order?
Two weeks ago (March 07 2024, see chart below) we explored the possibility of Gold (XAUUSD) starting a new cyclical Mega Rally on the 1W time-frame after the recent bounce on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line):
This has turned out to be the reality as Gold closed a 1W candle above the Resistance Zone. That is the first signal of the start of the new Mega Cycle and it will get confirmed if the price closes a 1M candle above the Resistance Zone in 10 days time, which is at 2150. If not, one final test of the 1W MA50 before a new All Time High (ATH), may be in order.
Until then, we need to consider the implications shown on the 1D time-frame, where the dominant pattern is a Channel Up. As you can see, the current Bullish Leg has so far repeating the previous one very closely and we are at the (blue) Channel Up stage that may price the new Higher High near the 1.382 Fibonacci extension from the previous High. The 1D MACD invalidating a Bullish Cross, confirms that we may be in a similar situation as on April 04 2023.
As long the 2145 Support holds, we expect 2260 as a Higher High, which should of course close the 1M candle above the Resistance Zone, indicating that the new cyclical Mega Rally may start earlier, without a 1W MA50 (red trend-line) pull-back.
If however the 2145 Support breaks, the above gets invalidated and we will have a sell confirmation. In that case, we will turn bearish, targeting the 1W MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the Internal Higher Lows trend-line (as on June 29 2023) with 2035 as our Target.
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This has turned out to be the reality as Gold closed a 1W candle above the Resistance Zone. That is the first signal of the start of the new Mega Cycle and it will get confirmed if the price closes a 1M candle above the Resistance Zone in 10 days time, which is at 2150. If not, one final test of the 1W MA50 before a new All Time High (ATH), may be in order.
Until then, we need to consider the implications shown on the 1D time-frame, where the dominant pattern is a Channel Up. As you can see, the current Bullish Leg has so far repeating the previous one very closely and we are at the (blue) Channel Up stage that may price the new Higher High near the 1.382 Fibonacci extension from the previous High. The 1D MACD invalidating a Bullish Cross, confirms that we may be in a similar situation as on April 04 2023.
As long the 2145 Support holds, we expect 2260 as a Higher High, which should of course close the 1M candle above the Resistance Zone, indicating that the new cyclical Mega Rally may start earlier, without a 1W MA50 (red trend-line) pull-back.
If however the 2145 Support breaks, the above gets invalidated and we will have a sell confirmation. In that case, we will turn bearish, targeting the 1W MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the Internal Higher Lows trend-line (as on June 29 2023) with 2035 as our Target.
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** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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