XAUUSD: Predictions on XAUUSD while waiting for US data
In currency markets today, the US dollar showed little volatility as investors awaited the release of additional economic data from the United States to gauge the potential direction of Federal Reserve policy state.
After the release of a higher-than-expected US consumer price index (CPI) on Tuesday, there were fresh concerns about persistent inflation, causing traders to reconsider whether the Fed will start cutting interest rates. capacity in June as previously predicted or not.
The possibility of an interest rate cut in June is now considered a 65% chance, down slightly from the 71% probability earlier this week, according to LSEG's interest rate probability application. Expectations for an interest rate cut in July remain high at around 83%. The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at its meeting next week, but the focus will be on the central bank's updated economic forecasts.
Kyle Rodda, a senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, noted that while recent data has slightly changed interest rate expectations, the consensus has been for three rate cuts for the year. now. He added that a more hawkish stance from the Fed could reduce this expectation to two rate cuts and push the first cut to September, strengthening the US dollar.
The dollar index, a measure of the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was relatively unchanged at 102.77. Investors are closely watching US retail sales data, the producer price index (PPI) and the unemployment claims report due out later today for further signs of weakness. economic recession.
After the release of a higher-than-expected US consumer price index (CPI) on Tuesday, there were fresh concerns about persistent inflation, causing traders to reconsider whether the Fed will start cutting interest rates. capacity in June as previously predicted or not.
The possibility of an interest rate cut in June is now considered a 65% chance, down slightly from the 71% probability earlier this week, according to LSEG's interest rate probability application. Expectations for an interest rate cut in July remain high at around 83%. The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at its meeting next week, but the focus will be on the central bank's updated economic forecasts.
Kyle Rodda, a senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, noted that while recent data has slightly changed interest rate expectations, the consensus has been for three rate cuts for the year. now. He added that a more hawkish stance from the Fed could reduce this expectation to two rate cuts and push the first cut to September, strengthening the US dollar.
The dollar index, a measure of the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was relatively unchanged at 102.77. Investors are closely watching US retail sales data, the producer price index (PPI) and the unemployment claims report due out later today for further signs of weakness. economic recession.
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