2340 IN 40 TRADING HOURS (03/12) DRAFT 4
Introduction - By popular demand, Binary Forecasting Service's trend engine has second adjustment to 2340 schedule to finish this series the right way. Originally called for Monday 03/18, to account for retracing/profit-taking, the short-term trend followers are relentless and refuse to allow gold a retrace bigger than 20 points since 1983 on Valentine's Day. But bears finally showed up today for two retraces for 23 and 26 points each, denying bulls 2183+ close required to tag 2340 on Monday, 03/11. This development has required the third draft in ten hours moving 2340 target to TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF CPI.
Details - Please read previous drafts/posts to see evolution of this forecast. For regular readers, new red line is the critical line for this pattern and circles are top marker. As for new readers, this is a short term map of price action generated by BFS's proprietary trend engine.
Please see links below for background.
Details - Please read previous drafts/posts to see evolution of this forecast. For regular readers, new red line is the critical line for this pattern and circles are top marker. As for new readers, this is a short term map of price action generated by BFS's proprietary trend engine.
Please see links below for background.
Comment:
5) ever wonder how trend lines actually work?
6) people different people use different channels
7) this will explain "some of that"
6) people different people use different channels
7) this will explain "some of that"
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8) take the high in 1981 and connect with the high in 2011:
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9) in chart above: why do I think price will get rejected hard?
10) well we know what happened THE LAST TIME in this situation
11) red line here is 2011 high and 2020 high:
10) well we know what happened THE LAST TIME in this situation
11) red line here is 2011 high and 2020 high:
Comment:
12) in chart above where price hit 2135 in first week of December
13) the reaction we got?
14) if you forgot, here's a reminder:
13) the reaction we got?
14) if you forgot, here's a reminder:
Comment:
Comment:
15) if you've been following me since then, that event put us through 10 weeks of pain
16) trying to find the "route up" that kept disappearing
17) this time will it be another 10 weeks?
18) if you extrapolate like this:
a) 2020-2011 = 9 years (effect: 12/03 high to 2/14 low = 73 days)
b) 2011-1981= 30 years (effect: ?)
c) 30/9 = 3.333, x 73 = 243 days
d) since top is Tuesday 3/12, +243 days
e) 243 days put us at 11/10/24
f) what is around 11/10/24 you ask?
g) the U.S. presidential election!
h) so does that mean I think bears will be ferocious until November?
i) no, because the low for December check-down
j) was 1 DAY AHEAD OF DECEMBER FOMC
k) remember:
1) we nailed 2140 high (I was actually 16 hours off, bc I expected it on Monday, not the Sunday night it happened)
2) we nailed the 60 pt spike on December FOMC
3) should I we nail the move to this coming Tuesday
4) I will probably be around to 3/20 FOMC
16) trying to find the "route up" that kept disappearing
17) this time will it be another 10 weeks?
18) if you extrapolate like this:
a) 2020-2011 = 9 years (effect: 12/03 high to 2/14 low = 73 days)
b) 2011-1981= 30 years (effect: ?)
c) 30/9 = 3.333, x 73 = 243 days
d) since top is Tuesday 3/12, +243 days
e) 243 days put us at 11/10/24
f) what is around 11/10/24 you ask?
g) the U.S. presidential election!
h) so does that mean I think bears will be ferocious until November?
i) no, because the low for December check-down
j) was 1 DAY AHEAD OF DECEMBER FOMC
k) remember:
1) we nailed 2140 high (I was actually 16 hours off, bc I expected it on Monday, not the Sunday night it happened)
2) we nailed the 60 pt spike on December FOMC
3) should I we nail the move to this coming Tuesday
4) I will probably be around to 3/20 FOMC
Comment:
l) that said, REMEMBER
m) there will be A SIGNIFICANT LOW AHEAD OF THE ELECTION
n) that will mark A MASSIVE RUN THE FOLLOWING MONTH
m) there will be A SIGNIFICANT LOW AHEAD OF THE ELECTION
n) that will mark A MASSIVE RUN THE FOLLOWING MONTH
Comment:
19) what about AFTER FOMC?
20) well we don't know yet
21) the Fed is THE FED!
22) they can "Fed" you however they want
23) remember in that move Judge Dredd when Stallone stepped out and screamed...
24) "I AM THE LAW!" ... it's like that
25) don't believe me? wait for 2340
26) then wait for 2150
27) the sick part about this? replay this:
20) well we don't know yet
21) the Fed is THE FED!
22) they can "Fed" you however they want
23) remember in that move Judge Dredd when Stallone stepped out and screamed...
24) "I AM THE LAW!" ... it's like that
25) don't believe me? wait for 2340
26) then wait for 2150
27) the sick part about this? replay this:
Comment:
28) that was the original work up calling for 2150 on 02/19 at 2017
29) since then we have moved 160 pts in 18 days (counting weekends)
30) after Tuesday, we are scheduled for 190 pts down in 7 days to 3/19 FOMC
31) to close this out: it remains to be seen what the fate of this market will be
29) since then we have moved 160 pts in 18 days (counting weekends)
30) after Tuesday, we are scheduled for 190 pts down in 7 days to 3/19 FOMC
31) to close this out: it remains to be seen what the fate of this market will be
Comment:
10:52 PM, I think bitcoin (which is 68K) is about to hit 105,000.
a) too lazy to tell you when
b) but knowing Bitcoin, it wouldn't surprise me if it did it same day gold hits 2340
a) too lazy to tell you when
b) but knowing Bitcoin, it wouldn't surprise me if it did it same day gold hits 2340
Comment:
c) this is a guess based on raw data
d) "not a call" even though I got a feeling it just wouldn't shock anybody
d) "not a call" even though I got a feeling it just wouldn't shock anybody
Comment:
e) 10:58 PM ET, I WILL CALL IT
f) by next Friday
g) but know Bitcoin, it will beat my date
h) so even though my call is Friday, I think Wednesday
I) is that really that far from Tuesday?
f) by next Friday
g) but know Bitcoin, it will beat my date
h) so even though my call is Friday, I think Wednesday
I) is that really that far from Tuesday?
Comment:
11:30 PM ET: Making it official with its own chart!
Comment:
a) speaking of which, you know auto-correct makes "bitcoin" into "Bitcoin"
b) to raise gold's profile, from a marketing perspective
c) I propose that from now on we call gold, "GOLD" in all caps
d) THAT IDEA ALONE, can bump gold 20% over the long run (I mean like years)
e) but think about it...
f) if you are long gold, you should call gold, GOLD
g) good night
b) to raise gold's profile, from a marketing perspective
c) I propose that from now on we call gold, "GOLD" in all caps
d) THAT IDEA ALONE, can bump gold 20% over the long run (I mean like years)
e) but think about it...
f) if you are long gold, you should call gold, GOLD
g) good night
Comment:
03/09, 1:21 AM ET, THERE IS ONE VERY CRAZY SCENARIO that my trend engine shows for 3/15 or next Friday.
1) it is the 2466 scenario
2) don't want to bring it up because it makes it sounds I "extrapolate to infinity"
3) it's not about that it's about the super long 12 year curves that points to
4) 120% of 2080 base line at crossover of these curves
5) the last this happen to gold was a "bear scenario in 2013" where gold moved like 15% in 2 days
1) it is the 2466 scenario
2) don't want to bring it up because it makes it sounds I "extrapolate to infinity"
3) it's not about that it's about the super long 12 year curves that points to
4) 120% of 2080 base line at crossover of these curves
5) the last this happen to gold was a "bear scenario in 2013" where gold moved like 15% in 2 days
Comment:
Comment:
HERE IS RIGHT NOW:
Comment:
FWIW if we need it late for Tuesday 3/19, markers are:
1) example is 2466
2) adjusted for bull wave stack is 2517
3) fair value momentum is 2488
4) super long top marker is 2546?
1) example is 2466
2) adjusted for bull wave stack is 2517
3) fair value momentum is 2488
4) super long top marker is 2546?
Comment:
10:06 AM ET, SATURDAY 03/09, 2540 IS 03/19 BASE CASE
a) I have considerable data that gold will break the 2340 ceiling next week
b) it looks like the breakout will be late Thursday or early Friday.
c) which automatically makes 2540 the target for 03/19/24
d) the day ahead of 3/20 FOMC
e) I have verified that the Dollar Index is in water mode
f) and will hit 97.75 or less in that same window
a) I have considerable data that gold will break the 2340 ceiling next week
b) it looks like the breakout will be late Thursday or early Friday.
c) which automatically makes 2540 the target for 03/19/24
d) the day ahead of 3/20 FOMC
e) I have verified that the Dollar Index is in water mode
f) and will hit 97.75 or less in that same window
Comment:
g) let me clarify that THIS IS A FORECAST FOR 16.5% OR $380 MOVE I
h) in SEVEN TRADING DAYS
h) in SEVEN TRADING DAYS
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10:18 AM ET, DOLLAR INDEX POST
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3/9 3:30 PM here are some notes for Sunday night and Monday AM:
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1) in chart above, if lack of interest in Asian session hold
2) the two arrows point at points where there's zig zags and retracing
3) if its quiet in first arrow, it with
2) the two arrows point at points where there's zig zags and retracing
3) if its quiet in first arrow, it with
Comment:
10) the ride should be smooth the entire way to 2340
11) converseLy if we do get a move to 2220 -ish Monday AM,
12) THEN expect high vol at the second arrow too.
11) converseLy if we do get a move to 2220 -ish Monday AM,
12) THEN expect high vol at the second arrow too.
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8:03 PM ET with chart above
a) that's the two routes I have for April, $2900 and $3600
b) so if you don't see me responding to anything
c) its because I am focused on execution only
d) thank you and good luck
a) that's the two routes I have for April, $2900 and $3600
b) so if you don't see me responding to anything
c) its because I am focused on execution only
d) thank you and good luck
Comment:
8:44 PM ET HERE'S RAW DATA NUMBERS:
a) slowest route to $3000, is by Friday June 7th,
b) that is 90 exactly days out with a maximum of 62 trading days (M-F and take out 3 holidays)
c) the QUICKEST ROUTE - the route that is playing right now - is calling for:
1) 2340 on Tuesday
2) 2540 the following Tuesday
3) 2900 on Monday, 04/08/24
4) 3600 on Sunday, 04/28/4
5) if your question is why, I refer you to the Fed, they may or may not be able to help you with that
6) from my end, it is the pressure released, by the 56 year regression waves
7) that will break the 43 year ceiling
a) slowest route to $3000, is by Friday June 7th,
b) that is 90 exactly days out with a maximum of 62 trading days (M-F and take out 3 holidays)
c) the QUICKEST ROUTE - the route that is playing right now - is calling for:
1) 2340 on Tuesday
2) 2540 the following Tuesday
3) 2900 on Monday, 04/08/24
4) 3600 on Sunday, 04/28/4
5) if your question is why, I refer you to the Fed, they may or may not be able to help you with that
6) from my end, it is the pressure released, by the 56 year regression waves
7) that will break the 43 year ceiling
Comment:
JUST TO SHARE MY RAW NUMBERS OK.
a) first, this engine is math problem
b) and the math says:
c) the slowest route to $3000 is by FRIDAY JUNE 7TH, 2024
d) that is 90 days out of which approximately 62 days are trading days
e) the FASTEST ROUTE - the one we are on right now - calls for
1) 2150 BY 03/08, we did that
2) 2200 BY 03/08, we were a hair off
3) 2340 by 03/12
4) 2540 by 03/19
a) first, this engine is math problem
b) and the math says:
c) the slowest route to $3000 is by FRIDAY JUNE 7TH, 2024
d) that is 90 days out of which approximately 62 days are trading days
e) the FASTEST ROUTE - the one we are on right now - calls for
1) 2150 BY 03/08, we did that
2) 2200 BY 03/08, we were a hair off
3) 2340 by 03/12
4) 2540 by 03/19
Comment:
5) and finally the safe target of $3000 on 04/07/24
Comment:
6) why "safe"?
7) the "moderating" mechanism in my trend engine
8) assumes that gold cannot break this line until the very top
7) the "moderating" mechanism in my trend engine
8) assumes that gold cannot break this line until the very top
Comment:
Comment:
9) this is the same dotted line in chart at top
Comment:
10) counting from the move at the base, this is 48% in over 40 total days or 1.2% a day
11) can gold do that?
12) well the good question is HAS IT EVER DONE THAT?
13) yes, from 11/27/79 to 01/21/1980, gold moved 122% or 2.2% a day
14) this is ONLY HALF THAT RATE so has happened before
11) can gold do that?
12) well the good question is HAS IT EVER DONE THAT?
13) yes, from 11/27/79 to 01/21/1980, gold moved 122% or 2.2% a day
14) this is ONLY HALF THAT RATE so has happened before
Comment:
8:44 PM ET SUNDAY NIGHT QUICK NOTES:
1) so first wide view of rally ceiling and floor:
1) so first wide view of rally ceiling and floor:
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
9:44 PM, if new blue line breaks
a) nothing much should happen
b) it's sideways to the second blue line in the middle
c) and the move up during NY session
a) nothing much should happen
b) it's sideways to the second blue line in the middle
c) and the move up during NY session
Comment:
3/11 9:19 this post dead we need a DRAFT 5 but I don't have time
a) so price action so far, now that gold has broken support
b) means 2300 gets pushed to Monday
c) so we will end up 2340 on 03/19-3/20
d) and what It really means is that 2340 will not break for at least 3 weeks
a) so price action so far, now that gold has broken support
b) means 2300 gets pushed to Monday
c) so we will end up 2340 on 03/19-3/20
d) and what It really means is that 2340 will not break for at least 3 weeks
Comment:
e) so while the timing of 2340 is now same as DRAFT 0
f) the route should be different like this:
f) the route should be different like this:
Comment:
g) in chart above, FOMC will smack this down
h) and price will spend 2 more weeks going back to 2340 AND STALLING
i) 44-year trend lines just don't break on the first try
j) so that means this for first half of APRIL:
h) and price will spend 2 more weeks going back to 2340 AND STALLING
i) 44-year trend lines just don't break on the first try
j) so that means this for first half of APRIL:
Comment:
k)
Comment:
l) in chart above
m) this is my final note to you
n) and let me say this with total conviction
1) I spent 8 years and change now doing this
2) you are not going to get rich trading
3) but the move in chart above...
4) I have barely slept 6 hours over the weekend
5) to get it all right
m) this is my final note to you
n) and let me say this with total conviction
1) I spent 8 years and change now doing this
2) you are not going to get rich trading
3) but the move in chart above...
4) I have barely slept 6 hours over the weekend
5) to get it all right
Comment:
6) this is a 27% move in about 3 weeks
7) please understand that the "details" will move
8) and fluctuate CONTINUOUSLY
9) but you are going to get 28xx come 04/12/24
10) there is no more doubt in my mind
11) and there is also no more need for me to keep writing
12) there is 3 moves in my opinion for chart above:
a) first, this is a buy and hold move NOW for 2325
b) because who cares about the last 15 points
c) second, short 2340 around FOMC
d) IT MIGHT NOT BREAK ON THAT WED
e) BUT IT WILL BY THAT THURSDAY
f) third and final move is go long 2240
g) don't' try to trade in and out for a 600 pt move
h) the last move before the top is
i) it moves up from below the bold line
j) breaks it, checks it and fly to 2850 is what it looks like
7) please understand that the "details" will move
8) and fluctuate CONTINUOUSLY
9) but you are going to get 28xx come 04/12/24
10) there is no more doubt in my mind
11) and there is also no more need for me to keep writing
12) there is 3 moves in my opinion for chart above:
a) first, this is a buy and hold move NOW for 2325
b) because who cares about the last 15 points
c) second, short 2340 around FOMC
d) IT MIGHT NOT BREAK ON THAT WED
e) BUT IT WILL BY THAT THURSDAY
f) third and final move is go long 2240
g) don't' try to trade in and out for a 600 pt move
h) the last move before the top is
i) it moves up from below the bold line
j) breaks it, checks it and fly to 2850 is what it looks like
Comment:
k) that's it, that's my present for your
l) I can't keep writing/posting bc I no longer have any incentive to do it
m) that's it, thanks for reading, have a good one
l) I can't keep writing/posting bc I no longer have any incentive to do it
m) that's it, thanks for reading, have a good one
Comment:
12:54, I have conviction as long as this line does not break until FOMC.
Comment:
1:48 PM ET... just like that no more conviction
a) the system doesn't work
b) otherwise, it would've been made by now
c) it's broken like 4 lines int the last 24 hours that "weren't supposed to break"
d) so it requires 'continuous binary updates"
e) forget it
a) the system doesn't work
b) otherwise, it would've been made by now
c) it's broken like 4 lines int the last 24 hours that "weren't supposed to break"
d) so it requires 'continuous binary updates"
e) forget it
Comment:
3/11 4:02 PM CLOSER
1) we will get 3000 before too long, but there's still some issues left
2) that being the fed
3) can hold this off for about another 75 days
4) so that means
a) tomorrow likely a down day checking 65 or lower
b) before FOMC, there should be 1 more high
c) so the Fed rolls in with a double top smacking this down to at least 2135
d) maybe even 2096
e) so then price will trade between 2100 and 2200 for the next 50 days or
f) until may 1st FOMC
1) we will get 3000 before too long, but there's still some issues left
2) that being the fed
3) can hold this off for about another 75 days
4) so that means
a) tomorrow likely a down day checking 65 or lower
b) before FOMC, there should be 1 more high
c) so the Fed rolls in with a double top smacking this down to at least 2135
d) maybe even 2096
e) so then price will trade between 2100 and 2200 for the next 50 days or
f) until may 1st FOMC
Comment:
g) if i'M right we'll be at around 2140 the week ahead of MAY FOMC
h) so then 50 days to 3000 i
i) but the problem is this
h) so then 50 days to 3000 i
i) but the problem is this
Comment:
j) what I just said is correct base on the pattern that price is taking
k) but what price have done the last month
k) but what price have done the last month
Comment:
l) should have taken 80 days
m) but price did it in 30
n) so this correction sideways which SHOULD TAKE 50 days
o) will it really be 50 days?
p) but that's ultimate wrap from me
q) we will get to 3000 by end of June
r) one way or the other
m) but price did it in 30
n) so this correction sideways which SHOULD TAKE 50 days
o) will it really be 50 days?
p) but that's ultimate wrap from me
q) we will get to 3000 by end of June
r) one way or the other
Comment:
3/11, 4:51 no, no way we close up, no 50-day correction
a) so?
b) so it can't be June
c) 3000 at the worst on or May 25th
a) so?
b) so it can't be June
c) 3000 at the worst on or May 25th
Comment:
Comment:
03/11/24 - THIS POST IS OVER, HERE IS THE LAST OF THE LAST ONE:
Related Ideas
1) yet the hard check down is WED MORNING
2) while this is no as immediate as DRAFT 3 -
3) the trend engine suggest whatever the CPI is going to be -
4) the major players and institutions are well aware of it