Good evening from the tiny but great country of the Netherlands. I hope everyone had a great weekend and is ready for the coming tradingweek. It promises to be an awesome one.
Looking at the price action of the previous week, I can not conclude otherwise that the bearwindow is closing rather rapidly. An overview of arguments for a bearish and bullish view:
🐻 Arguments for the Golden Bear:
1. COT-data shows longs closing (although not a big amount and looks more like profit taking)
2. Daily RSI is in a bearish divergence
3. H4 200 MA not tested
🐂 Arguments for the Golden Bull:
1. Bullcandle volumes are stronger than the bearcandle volumes
2. Bullish pennant on the daily
3. Bullflag to 1750
4. Thursday's bullish engulfing candle
5. H4 hidden bullish divergence
6. Weekly close 1700+
As you can see, the arguments for a bullish week far outweigh the bearish one. So what to expect next week? I think it is time for a sweet $140 ride to $1840, which is also the bullish pennants breakout target.
I will be starting to look for clues on Monday and will start slowly with adding longs in the 1695-1700 area. Any green candle (even a green doji) on Monday is a very good clue for bullish continuation on Tuesday and onwards. A daily candle close of $1720+ will be key in this setup, as that indicates the start of wave 3 and would propel us to the breakout level of $1740 for starters.
From 1740 it can be a rather fast blast to 1770-1780 and then some ranging with a bullish bias towards near 1800. My end target for this setup is 1840-1850 depending on the market and the bulls' buying appetite.
Even if we fall below 1670 (invalidation level), I will keep my longs and will buy that level too. The bearish view towards 1650 is still not out of the picture, but the chances are that we will not see below 1680 for some time (a couple weeks). However if we go below 1670, it would invalidate this setup and the bulls need to start over again.
Let's get ready for some action!
Looking at the price action of the previous week, I can not conclude otherwise that the bearwindow is closing rather rapidly. An overview of arguments for a bearish and bullish view:
🐻 Arguments for the Golden Bear:
1. COT-data shows longs closing (although not a big amount and looks more like profit taking)
2. Daily RSI is in a bearish divergence
3. H4 200 MA not tested
🐂 Arguments for the Golden Bull:
1. Bullcandle volumes are stronger than the bearcandle volumes
2. Bullish pennant on the daily
3. Bullflag to 1750
4. Thursday's bullish engulfing candle
5. H4 hidden bullish divergence
6. Weekly close 1700+
As you can see, the arguments for a bullish week far outweigh the bearish one. So what to expect next week? I think it is time for a sweet $140 ride to $1840, which is also the bullish pennants breakout target.
I will be starting to look for clues on Monday and will start slowly with adding longs in the 1695-1700 area. Any green candle (even a green doji) on Monday is a very good clue for bullish continuation on Tuesday and onwards. A daily candle close of $1720+ will be key in this setup, as that indicates the start of wave 3 and would propel us to the breakout level of $1740 for starters.
From 1740 it can be a rather fast blast to 1770-1780 and then some ranging with a bullish bias towards near 1800. My end target for this setup is 1840-1850 depending on the market and the bulls' buying appetite.
Even if we fall below 1670 (invalidation level), I will keep my longs and will buy that level too. The bearish view towards 1650 is still not out of the picture, but the chances are that we will not see below 1680 for some time (a couple weeks). However if we go below 1670, it would invalidate this setup and the bulls need to start over again.
Let's get ready for some action!