Price closed below mother bar, printing an outside reversal. Currently is supported only by the lower channel line, while is bearish in all timeframes up to quarter.
A possible close below 1,680 will probably lead to a violent to the downside move. Only a close above last session's high at 1.741 will provide some comfort to the longs, hoping that price will cross MA10 and prove and new daily cycle to the upside. Reaction to 1,775-1,776 is critical as shorts will come in there. Commercials are short at -251K contracts and a possible print this week in the CFTC report above their previous high of -243K contracts will lead probably to a big move. Currencies related to gold like the yen and swiss franc are in weak positions currently against the dollar, which needs another 4-6 days to reach timewise its half cycle high, while US10YY trajectory pushing real yields up-negative for gold- and adds pressure to both stock and bond markets. Possilby, we'll see increase in volatilty in the repo market, forcing FED to intervene again like last October. Daily sentiment index of gold is in middle position at 50's with lot of room to the downside until pessimistic area is reached, where will have the buy signal. Key support area is between 1,688-1,685. After next FOMC, where they talk dollar down again, towards end of month, early April, gold will probably start catching a bid.
Key days ahead, don't trade big and be patient. Seasonal wise, March is the worst month along with October. A possible weekly close outside of bollinger bands will release the volatility to the downside. Obviously, I'm ready for a short position, after yesterdays long scalp from the demand zone. Some levels of interest below price in blue rectangles.
Some thoughts, hope it helps everyone.
Cheers,
P.
A possible close below 1,680 will probably lead to a violent to the downside move. Only a close above last session's high at 1.741 will provide some comfort to the longs, hoping that price will cross MA10 and prove and new daily cycle to the upside. Reaction to 1,775-1,776 is critical as shorts will come in there. Commercials are short at -251K contracts and a possible print this week in the CFTC report above their previous high of -243K contracts will lead probably to a big move. Currencies related to gold like the yen and swiss franc are in weak positions currently against the dollar, which needs another 4-6 days to reach timewise its half cycle high, while US10YY trajectory pushing real yields up-negative for gold- and adds pressure to both stock and bond markets. Possilby, we'll see increase in volatilty in the repo market, forcing FED to intervene again like last October. Daily sentiment index of gold is in middle position at 50's with lot of room to the downside until pessimistic area is reached, where will have the buy signal. Key support area is between 1,688-1,685. After next FOMC, where they talk dollar down again, towards end of month, early April, gold will probably start catching a bid.
Key days ahead, don't trade big and be patient. Seasonal wise, March is the worst month along with October. A possible weekly close outside of bollinger bands will release the volatility to the downside. Obviously, I'm ready for a short position, after yesterdays long scalp from the demand zone. Some levels of interest below price in blue rectangles.
Some thoughts, hope it helps everyone.
Cheers,
P.
