XAUUSD Bullish (11/26/2023 to 12/01/2023 prediction)
Gold is bullish, from mostly the FED’s dovish stance and inflation reports from the week before last. We opened up this week around 2001 and had some large volume for Asian sessions pushing the price to 2018 before buyers took some profit. When writing this, the price is challenging the 2010 key level.
We have a lot of news this week, and keep in mind we are closing out the month. We have New home sales, pending home sales, housing price index, FED speakers, core personal consumption and also the price index, GDP numbers, Opec meetings, initial jobless claims, personal income, personal spending, and finally, a slew of ISM manufacturing reports. Most of the reports’ consensus is putting the dollar in bear territory as consumer numbers are lower than previous and manufacturing numbers are in negative territory. My personal opinion is that most of these numbers will come out negative, the question is by how much? This confirms Gold bulls will have momentum building as the week goes on. If a report comes out as expected, I don’t see too much movement. If the reports come out super positive, that will indicate that the FED may not have inflation under control, it will indicate that the dollar is strong, so bulls will enjoy that, and it will indicate that the sentiment for a FED pivot next year may gain some steam even though the FED said they will keep rates higher for longer. If the FED hints at cuts during the speeches, that will indicate that the US economy is in serious trouble and the FED’s plan may not be on track as we assume. It is an eventful week where many trade opportunities may present themselves.
The war tension is still in the air. Ukraine is begging for more handouts while the Russians sent another satellite into orbit. It is getting desperate for Ukraine, so it is only a matter of time before we may see some peace negotiations materialize. The Israel-Hamas war saw some great news over the weekend! We had a 4-day truce deal, which is meant to expire Monday the 27th of November, almost one month and three weeks since the triggering events of Oct 7. During the weekend, we saw 50 Israeli and 150 Palestinian captives released, which is a joy for all peace activists. We will see how long the truce lasts. As of right now, the biggest battle is with the diplomats and the media narrative. No new major movements on the Taiwan-China front.
Trade idea 1: Price pulls back to 1997 before continuing bullish to 2020. (All news events stay negative)
Trade idea 2: Price pulls back to 1988 before continuing bullish to 2020. (Some news events come out mixed)
Trade idea 3: Price pulls back to 1970 before continuing bullish to 2020. (Some news events come out higher than expected)
We have a lot of news this week, and keep in mind we are closing out the month. We have New home sales, pending home sales, housing price index, FED speakers, core personal consumption and also the price index, GDP numbers, Opec meetings, initial jobless claims, personal income, personal spending, and finally, a slew of ISM manufacturing reports. Most of the reports’ consensus is putting the dollar in bear territory as consumer numbers are lower than previous and manufacturing numbers are in negative territory. My personal opinion is that most of these numbers will come out negative, the question is by how much? This confirms Gold bulls will have momentum building as the week goes on. If a report comes out as expected, I don’t see too much movement. If the reports come out super positive, that will indicate that the FED may not have inflation under control, it will indicate that the dollar is strong, so bulls will enjoy that, and it will indicate that the sentiment for a FED pivot next year may gain some steam even though the FED said they will keep rates higher for longer. If the FED hints at cuts during the speeches, that will indicate that the US economy is in serious trouble and the FED’s plan may not be on track as we assume. It is an eventful week where many trade opportunities may present themselves.
The war tension is still in the air. Ukraine is begging for more handouts while the Russians sent another satellite into orbit. It is getting desperate for Ukraine, so it is only a matter of time before we may see some peace negotiations materialize. The Israel-Hamas war saw some great news over the weekend! We had a 4-day truce deal, which is meant to expire Monday the 27th of November, almost one month and three weeks since the triggering events of Oct 7. During the weekend, we saw 50 Israeli and 150 Palestinian captives released, which is a joy for all peace activists. We will see how long the truce lasts. As of right now, the biggest battle is with the diplomats and the media narrative. No new major movements on the Taiwan-China front.
Trade idea 1: Price pulls back to 1997 before continuing bullish to 2020. (All news events stay negative)
Trade idea 2: Price pulls back to 1988 before continuing bullish to 2020. (Some news events come out mixed)
Trade idea 3: Price pulls back to 1970 before continuing bullish to 2020. (Some news events come out higher than expected)
Order cancelled:
Gold spiked to 2044... all-time highs... ever. Can expect 2000 - 2020 to act as support going forward.
Fed speaker Waller: Good economic arguments that if inflation continues falling for several more months that you could lower policy rates. Continued inflation declines in coming months could warrant rate cuts. Slowing economy will have an impact on credit delinquencies, and earnings; Those are signs of moderating demand as the fed intends. Absent a shock "no reason" fed cannot pull off a soft landing. Increasingly confident policy is in the right spot
Fed Goolsbee: Of all pieces of data, housing inflation is most paramount. Market based inflation expectations have been anchored. Overall, we have made progress with inflation
Fed Williams: Encouraging to see decline in inflation pressure
Fed Bowman: Unclear whether further supply side improvements will continue to lower inflation. Monetary policy not on preset course, incoming data will continue to be closely monitored. Fed should keep in mind risk with prematurely declaring victory on inflation
Fed speaker Waller: Good economic arguments that if inflation continues falling for several more months that you could lower policy rates. Continued inflation declines in coming months could warrant rate cuts. Slowing economy will have an impact on credit delinquencies, and earnings; Those are signs of moderating demand as the fed intends. Absent a shock "no reason" fed cannot pull off a soft landing. Increasingly confident policy is in the right spot
Fed Goolsbee: Of all pieces of data, housing inflation is most paramount. Market based inflation expectations have been anchored. Overall, we have made progress with inflation
Fed Williams: Encouraging to see decline in inflation pressure
Fed Bowman: Unclear whether further supply side improvements will continue to lower inflation. Monetary policy not on preset course, incoming data will continue to be closely monitored. Fed should keep in mind risk with prematurely declaring victory on inflation
Comment:
It has come to my attention that I made a mistake, 2044 is not an all-time high. The all-time high was 2079 back in May 2023 from SVB collapse. Apologies.
Trade ideas are invalid, as I expected at least a little pullback before shooting up in expectation for this week.