LIVE #10! IS IT PAYBACK TIME YET?
SUMMARY - This is the 12/11, 15-min bar, 20-day generic, 10-day ultra-detailed, CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. Continuing from the previous post LIVE #9!, bears put in another low Monday at 1975-ish and still aiming for one more low early tomorrow at 1971-ish. After that, my regression forecast is calling for bears to die by end of trading day on Thursday 12/14. I said yesterday that my conviction in my due diligence called for 2140 again by end of Friday 12/22? Do I still have that conviction? Yeah, I think I do.
WARNING - As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. Be aware that there is AN ACTUAL LIMIT on the number updates I can do per post, so I am not going be super detailed. That said, it's been working out anyway.
DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that legit forecasting help you win day in and day out. And if my forecasts help you make REAL MONEY, help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY to keep this thing going. Please hit like/boost button.
GRAY HI-LIGHTS - These are areas where I am not sure what it should look like. Blue hi-light is primary, grays are secondary outcomes.
WARNING - As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. Be aware that there is AN ACTUAL LIMIT on the number updates I can do per post, so I am not going be super detailed. That said, it's been working out anyway.
DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that legit forecasting help you win day in and day out. And if my forecasts help you make REAL MONEY, help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY to keep this thing going. Please hit like/boost button.
GRAY HI-LIGHTS - These are areas where I am not sure what it should look like. Blue hi-light is primary, grays are secondary outcomes.
Comment:
12/11, 11:03 PM ET, GREY HI-LIGHT IS RIGHT FOR THURS/FRI
o) it's too much of a stretch, regression wise
p) while it can push past 2090...
q) anything like that will be sold quickly
r) in that event, it will form a crown like the blue hi-light
s) just not 'as thick"
o) it's too much of a stretch, regression wise
p) while it can push past 2090...
q) anything like that will be sold quickly
r) in that event, it will form a crown like the blue hi-light
s) just not 'as thick"
Comment:
12/11, 11:51 PM ET:
Comment:
12/12, 12:02 AM ET, SO 1, 2 AND 4-MIN BARS FAVOR DARK BLUE OVER LIGHT BLUE NOW:
Comment:
a) but please understand that this is 1 and 2 and 4-min bars
b) so take it with some table salt
c) it's true until it's not
b) so take it with some table salt
c) it's true until it's not
Comment:
d) 12/12 1:00 AM 1987.55, odds now favor 1981 floor over 1971 floor for PRE-CPI CHECK DOWN
e) especially if 1993 gets hit next
e) especially if 1993 gets hit next
Comment:
f) in which case, floor becomes 1983
Comment:
g) 2:06 AM ET 1988.62, so we are 7 hours from CPI reaction
h) regressions show 1993 unlikely to break before CPI
i) I dont' even know if we will hit it
j) but AFTER CPI, odds favor tagging 2000, above that is unclear
k) obviously bulls want 2008, but again unclear right now
h) regressions show 1993 unlikely to break before CPI
i) I dont' even know if we will hit it
j) but AFTER CPI, odds favor tagging 2000, above that is unclear
k) obviously bulls want 2008, but again unclear right now
Comment:
l) it seems like from here, which is 87.22 ..
m) we go 1991, 1984, 2000, 2003, maybe a a bit higher, and then drift tomorrow night
n) that's pretty much a wrap until PPI
m) we go 1991, 1984, 2000, 2003, maybe a a bit higher, and then drift tomorrow night
n) that's pretty much a wrap until PPI
Comment:
12/12, 4:34 AM ET, 1984.18
a) never made it to 1991, so lower check down ahead of CPI anticipated
b) four hours to CPI, BB's say 1978-79 should hold
c) but standard 2-way CPI vol, especially for this situation, can easily break that before moving to 2003-2004
d) so be aware
a) never made it to 1991, so lower check down ahead of CPI anticipated
b) four hours to CPI, BB's say 1978-79 should hold
c) but standard 2-way CPI vol, especially for this situation, can easily break that before moving to 2003-2004
d) so be aware
Comment:
8:21 AM ET 1988.XX, minutes to CPI and actually tagged 1992.xx before release
a) this has raised the vol floor to 1983-84
b) meaning if the reaction today 2003-2004 as anticipated
c) then the zig zag floor should be 1983-84 for the next 100 minutes or until 10 AM ET
a) this has raised the vol floor to 1983-84
b) meaning if the reaction today 2003-2004 as anticipated
c) then the zig zag floor should be 1983-84 for the next 100 minutes or until 10 AM ET
Comment:
d) so what?
e) so Wed-Thurs plans have improved in our favor just a bit
e) so Wed-Thurs plans have improved in our favor just a bit
Comment:
8:38 AM ET CPI REACTION
1) vol floor checkdown was 85.xx, spike was 96.xx
2) and checking down to 87.xx
3) can it go lower?
4) vol floor is still 82.5-84
5) expectations are same, move for 2003-2004
6) 2008 still unclear today
1) vol floor checkdown was 85.xx, spike was 96.xx
2) and checking down to 87.xx
3) can it go lower?
4) vol floor is still 82.5-84
5) expectations are same, move for 2003-2004
6) 2008 still unclear today
Comment:
8:40 AM and just like that at 84.xx again
a) 82.5 needs to hold and reverse strong
b) under this for more than a few minutes at a time WILL BE A PROBLEM
a) 82.5 needs to hold and reverse strong
b) under this for more than a few minutes at a time WILL BE A PROBLEM
Comment:
8:57 AM ET 84.XX 45-WINDOW FOR V REACTION TO 1996 OR HIGHTER
a) these windows DO NOT LAST FOREVER
b) bulls need to get on it NOW
c) if they don't do it now.. it will be A VERY ANNOYING 30 HOURS UNTIL FOMC REACTION
a) these windows DO NOT LAST FOREVER
b) bulls need to get on it NOW
c) if they don't do it now.. it will be A VERY ANNOYING 30 HOURS UNTIL FOMC REACTION
Comment:
Comment:
d) typo, I mean 45-min window.. so until 9:45
Comment:
12/12, 1:12 PM ET, 25 hours out from FOMC, at 1978.xx and having lost important 1982.5 support this morning
a) if you replay chart at top we are in between those two bottom trend llines again
b) this is not a good look
c) this goes without saying, even though we are 1979 as I type
d) we are only 6 points from 1935 AND THAT'S NOT A TYPO
e) meaning if we lose 1973, 74 it will ugly like you don't even know
f) so BE CLEAR ABOUT THAT OK?
g) that said, the setup this rallly is STILL LIVE
h) but maybe dead in 60 minutes if bears push this thing to 1970
i) until they do, I am still waiting for FOMC
a) if you replay chart at top we are in between those two bottom trend llines again
b) this is not a good look
c) this goes without saying, even though we are 1979 as I type
d) we are only 6 points from 1935 AND THAT'S NOT A TYPO
e) meaning if we lose 1973, 74 it will ugly like you don't even know
f) so BE CLEAR ABOUT THAT OK?
g) that said, the setup this rallly is STILL LIVE
h) but maybe dead in 60 minutes if bears push this thing to 1970
i) until they do, I am still waiting for FOMC
Comment:
1:51 PM ET, 8 min until FOMC, my scanners picking up a 45-point spike
a) it's 1981.xx as I type
b) scanners say the spike can hit 2026
c) we will see if it works
a) it's 1981.xx as I type
b) scanners say the spike can hit 2026
c) we will see if it works
Comment:
d) should take until 8-9 PM ET
Comment:
e) 2:03 PM TAG 1996
Comment:
f) having troubles with update feature now... ANNOYING!!
1)
1)
Comment:
2:17 PM ET.. 2004.XX
a) fed will cut 3 times in 2024
b) target for 8-9PM moves to 2034-2040
a) fed will cut 3 times in 2024
b) target for 8-9PM moves to 2034-2040
Comment:
2:36 PM ET 2010.XX, I am busy AF so, expectations are:
1) 2034 by 9 PM ET
2) 2040 over night
3) 2052 Thursday before noon
4) 2065 by Thursday NY close
5) NONE OF THIS MEANS IT WILL BE A STRAIGHT LINE OR SMOOTH RIDE
6) 2080 still possible by Thursday NY close, obviously NOT PROBABLE though
1) 2034 by 9 PM ET
2) 2040 over night
3) 2052 Thursday before noon
4) 2065 by Thursday NY close
5) NONE OF THIS MEANS IT WILL BE A STRAIGHT LINE OR SMOOTH RIDE
6) 2080 still possible by Thursday NY close, obviously NOT PROBABLE though
Comment:
7) I have pay attention to execution now so see you tomorrow
Comment:
2:59 PM ET NY CLOSE 2024.xx
a) I said at 1:51 PM ET that I got a signal for 2026
b) so 2 pts from that
c) replay chart at top, we just broke another resistance line
d) at top half of this post I wrote a bit about how I like this chart EXCEPT how high THURSDAY-FRI window should be
e) the main thing IS THURSDAY
f) how well we do tomorrow is based on what happens during Asian session overnight
g) as of right now 2065-2070 in 24 hours from now looiks legit
h) again, NONE OF THIS MEANS A STRAIGHT LINE... but we getting there
a) I said at 1:51 PM ET that I got a signal for 2026
b) so 2 pts from that
c) replay chart at top, we just broke another resistance line
d) at top half of this post I wrote a bit about how I like this chart EXCEPT how high THURSDAY-FRI window should be
e) the main thing IS THURSDAY
f) how well we do tomorrow is based on what happens during Asian session overnight
g) as of right now 2065-2070 in 24 hours from now looiks legit
h) again, NONE OF THIS MEANS A STRAIGHT LINE... but we getting there
Comment:
Comment:
7:05: PM 2033.85 ignoring some rules here and moving for 2052 tonigh by 9:30 or so
a) I can forecast to the day of a massive spike
b) but to tell you during the rally what it wants to do... it's hardest thing in the world
a) I can forecast to the day of a massive spike
b) but to tell you during the rally what it wants to do... it's hardest thing in the world
Comment:
c) what I mean is that some it is just a guess
d) bc it already broke the rules that I was using, so I have to resort to guessing at levels
d) bc it already broke the rules that I was using, so I have to resort to guessing at levels
Comment:
e) 7:11, so now looks like 2039-2043 should be tonight's top
Comment:
f) current math says there should be a 20 pt retrace after 2041 area gets hit
g) obviously strong buy from where I stand
g) obviously strong buy from where I stand
Comment:
h) splitting hairs a little bit but high should be between 2037-2043
i) again, a guess bc runaway momentum and and immediate rug pull are common things, please understand that...
i) again, a guess bc runaway momentum and and immediate rug pull are common things, please understand that...
Comment:
j) 7:29 PM ET... 2035.xx the momentum IS NOT SAYING 20 PT RETRACE ....
k) it's saying 2052 before anything else
l) the fib ratios say 20 pt retrace at 37-43.. but it's a guess
k) it's saying 2052 before anything else
l) the fib ratios say 20 pt retrace at 37-43.. but it's a guess
Comment:
m) momentum says 2052 by 8:00 PM .. so in 90 minutes
Comment:
n) 7:42, 35.xx now saying 52 in at 9:30-9:45
Comment:
o) 8:01 pm 36.47 signal top in from 15 second bars, so FWIW
Comment:
p) 8:07 PM ET 35.xx, too many updates last hour so I gotta find a different way to do this or the mods are going to ban me
1) I would really like to get that retrace to 2020 over and done with so I can leverage up all-in again
2) would like to get that done by 10 pm
3) I dont know if it's going to be that easy
4) if you see a 15-22 pt retrace, buy it for 2070 in 24-28 hours
5) that's a wrapo for this post too, I'll get something out tomorrow
1) I would really like to get that retrace to 2020 over and done with so I can leverage up all-in again
2) would like to get that done by 10 pm
3) I dont know if it's going to be that easy
4) if you see a 15-22 pt retrace, buy it for 2070 in 24-28 hours
5) that's a wrapo for this post too, I'll get something out tomorrow
Comment:
10:55 PM ET 2030.83... BEARS BETTER MAKE IT TO 2020 AGAIN THIS DRIVE DOWN...
a) bc if they wait much longer...
b) the trend will turn and bull will bush non stop for 52 this time
c) so the clock is running for bears now
a) bc if they wait much longer...
b) the trend will turn and bull will bush non stop for 52 this time
c) so the clock is running for bears now
Comment:
d) typo on b) push not bush
e) it looks like 2020 but range is 2018-2025
e) it looks like 2020 but range is 2018-2025
Trade closed manually:
12/14, 5:56 AM ET
THIS POST HAS ENDED - THERE'S NO NEW ONE THIS TIME
a) failure to break a bit higher over night has price stuck in a channel
b) and that means giant staircases
c) I'm too tired to make a post for it
d) but big targets are still good, 2150 by 12/22, maybe 12/26
e) and 2250 by 01/10
f) have a good one
THIS POST HAS ENDED - THERE'S NO NEW ONE THIS TIME
a) failure to break a bit higher over night has price stuck in a channel
b) and that means giant staircases
c) I'm too tired to make a post for it
d) but big targets are still good, 2150 by 12/22, maybe 12/26
e) and 2250 by 01/10
f) have a good one
Comment:
FWIW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS:
Comment:
6:21 AM ET -- JUST SO THERE ARE NO MISUNDERSTANDINGS
a) we still target 2068 for Thursday (today)
b) either by NY CLOSE or by midnight-- doesn't matter
c) I am just saying that the route to 2140-2160 is basically a giant zig zag
d) I hate forecasting those parts bc you only get some right
e) just closee your eyes and go long, come mid January 2250 for sure from my end
a) we still target 2068 for Thursday (today)
b) either by NY CLOSE or by midnight-- doesn't matter
c) I am just saying that the route to 2140-2160 is basically a giant zig zag
d) I hate forecasting those parts bc you only get some right
e) just closee your eyes and go long, come mid January 2250 for sure from my end
Comment:
12/14 5:05 PM - HERE IS NEXT ONE:
UNDER BAN. To join discussion group (not channel, not a subscription), you can go here:
t.me/+qXv5d6B2SwhlNTMx
t.me/+qXv5d6B2SwhlNTMx
Related Ideas
a) I believe so
b) I think so
c) and I think I know so
d) the only part about this chart (at top) that I don't like ...
e) is how high it is for 12/14-15 (this Thurs/Fri)
f) does it have to be that high?
g) well no
h) but I have good reasons why it SHOULD BE...
i) so I put in that gray hi-light for those two days for this reason
j) I am trying to disprove why it has to be so fast up...
k) hey, but nobody tried to disprove how fast it went down did they?
l) that's bc it went down so fast you couldn't even blink for second.. hehe ok...
m) but 2080 is - w/o a doubt - legit target, even 2090...