#005 24 HOUR EXTRAPOLATION EMERGENCY
SUMMARY - Bearish momentum has reset regression waves and unlocked bollingers all the way to 1920. This is an emergency post because I have zero time to do anything.
NOTES - Will add with time.
NOTES - Will add with time.
Comment:
c) if I know more, I will add
Comment:
4:00 PM ET 2028.10 TALKING FUNDAMENTALS...
a) the move is legit...
b) whether or not it happens, my math says 60/40 in favor
c) but why? ... in what world??
d) FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGY has always been long gold INTO THE FIRST FED CUT (MARCH 2024)
e) so why the bearish sell off with zero bullish reaction?
f) causing this setup to form for 1920?
g) if it plays, that's from 2146 IDC ticker... so 225 in 2-3 days?...
h) would be less than 48 hours if it takes the fast route tomorrow...
i) THAT IS NOT BULLISH ... so why?
j) what if the FED'S first cut is NOT MARCH, BUT IN 9 DAYS??
a) the move is legit...
b) whether or not it happens, my math says 60/40 in favor
c) but why? ... in what world??
d) FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGY has always been long gold INTO THE FIRST FED CUT (MARCH 2024)
e) so why the bearish sell off with zero bullish reaction?
f) causing this setup to form for 1920?
g) if it plays, that's from 2146 IDC ticker... so 225 in 2-3 days?...
h) would be less than 48 hours if it takes the fast route tomorrow...
i) THAT IS NOT BULLISH ... so why?
j) what if the FED'S first cut is NOT MARCH, BUT IN 9 DAYS??
Comment:
k) and word got out already, that things appear so bad, they decide to cut 90 days early... (not unlike them to do)
l) that means bear market from here on out.
m) we will see what happens tonight
l) that means bear market from here on out.
m) we will see what happens tonight
Comment:
n) and for those that don't understand, you buy the rumor...
o) once they cut, it's baked in, no more good news...(hence sell it)
o) once they cut, it's baked in, no more good news...(hence sell it)
Comment:
7:49 PM ET... 2039.xx
a) so thorough break down of the numbers say...
b) that this call is 24 hours early, but still valid at this time
c) expectations are sideways between 2020 amd 2045 until noon TUESDAY
d) then slide to 1930
a) so thorough break down of the numbers say...
b) that this call is 24 hours early, but still valid at this time
c) expectations are sideways between 2020 amd 2045 until noon TUESDAY
d) then slide to 1930
Comment:
6:54 AM ET, 12/5, 2024.xx at yesterday's floor
a) vol limits say target 1991 and a bit lower
b) so 1985?
c) let's see that first and a reaction before thinking lower
a) vol limits say target 1991 and a bit lower
b) so 1985?
c) let's see that first and a reaction before thinking lower
Comment:
d) 7:07 PM if washout by noon-1PM, floor should be 1975-1980
e) if tested, should hold for today
e) if tested, should hold for today
Comment:
f) levels to watch 2017, 2012, 2005... and then rug pulll
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
a) in chart above, regressions say bear zone lasts until roughly noon
b) so be careful until then...
b) so be careful until then...
Comment:
10:27 AM ET 2017.XX, bounced off 2017 3 times already, and trying a fourth time
a) there's A LOT of support at 2017, 2012, and 2005
b) I said this earlier.....
c) it's going to be zig and zag quite a bit if it's going to break it all
d) the math says it will break and go to 1991
e) below that is major support, so if it gets there
f) zig and zag again to max pain at 1975
a) there's A LOT of support at 2017, 2012, and 2005
b) I said this earlier.....
c) it's going to be zig and zag quite a bit if it's going to break it all
d) the math says it will break and go to 1991
e) below that is major support, so if it gets there
f) zig and zag again to max pain at 1975
Comment:
g) 10:40 2011.93 as I type... so testing 2012 level now
h) odds of 1991 increasing heavily
j) but still gotta get past 2012 and 2005
h) odds of 1991 increasing heavily
j) but still gotta get past 2012 and 2005
Comment:
11:00 2015.xx after bouncing off 2009
a) some one said 2002 tonight...
b) if bears want push this down
c) their best window is the next 2 hours.. or by 1 PM et
d) the next 2 hours after that will see them weaken against bull support
e) and they run out power in the aftermarket
f) whatever they want to do, they better do it now....
g) bc it's 17.xx again as I type
a) some one said 2002 tonight...
b) if bears want push this down
c) their best window is the next 2 hours.. or by 1 PM et
d) the next 2 hours after that will see them weaken against bull support
e) and they run out power in the aftermarket
f) whatever they want to do, they better do it now....
g) bc it's 17.xx again as I type
Comment:
h) if they are strong and break under 2005, then 1991 pretty much automatic
i) but if they can't do in 2 hours...
j) forget it
i) but if they can't do in 2 hours...
j) forget it
Comment:
12:04 PM ET 15.XX MY SCANNERS SAY BOTTOM IN.
1) so I'm long
2) at Dr office, can't add more
1) so I'm long
2) at Dr office, can't add more
Comment:
1:15 PM, 2018.xx
a) I am long bc in all virtually 100% of extrapolations, 2040 is next
b) and 2052-55 very likely
c) within 24 hours
d) NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS AFTERWARDS...
e) so that's why I went long
f) plus if bears are that weak at their most important window
g) they should get out of the way for next suprise
a) I am long bc in all virtually 100% of extrapolations, 2040 is next
b) and 2052-55 very likely
c) within 24 hours
d) NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS AFTERWARDS...
e) so that's why I went long
f) plus if bears are that weak at their most important window
g) they should get out of the way for next suprise
Comment:
4:21 PM ET.. CONSIDER THIS BEFORE I POST NEXT ONE:
Comment:
a) for chart above:
b) last week on the 28th and 29th I said that we were entering a selling zone
c) pushing too close would cause massive sell off after the rally
d) even though tagging 2135 (FXOPEN) and 2145 (IDC/ICE) made up for being late
e) the massive sell off that edge away AND made it even worse than before
f) by causing REAL TECHNICAL DAMAGE to the chart...
g) bc it forces bulls TO HAVE TO CLOSE THIS WEEK ABOVE 2100....
h) why?
i) psychologically, you can ignore the sell off ...
j) but technically speaking, RECORRECTS ANY TWISTING DOWN of
k) short and intermediate regressiions (so trend) ot read bulllishly
b) last week on the 28th and 29th I said that we were entering a selling zone
c) pushing too close would cause massive sell off after the rally
d) even though tagging 2135 (FXOPEN) and 2145 (IDC/ICE) made up for being late
e) the massive sell off that edge away AND made it even worse than before
f) by causing REAL TECHNICAL DAMAGE to the chart...
g) bc it forces bulls TO HAVE TO CLOSE THIS WEEK ABOVE 2100....
h) why?
i) psychologically, you can ignore the sell off ...
j) but technically speaking, RECORRECTS ANY TWISTING DOWN of
k) short and intermediate regressiions (so trend) ot read bulllishly
Comment:
l) "to" read ... typo
m) does that fix all our problems?
n) no it does not...
o) we still have to hit 2220 by 12/15-ish
p) if too close to 12/19-12/20 ...
q) then we will have the same set of problems we have now
r) having to move to 2240+ to "make up for lost time"
s) AND DO IT IN A SELLING ZONE...
t) that will trigger yet ANOTHER MASSIVE SELL OFF TO CLOSE THE YEAR...
u) so ?
v) it remains to be seen if price will really do all this
w) bc right now the technical chart look ugly AF and I'm being nice
m) does that fix all our problems?
n) no it does not...
o) we still have to hit 2220 by 12/15-ish
p) if too close to 12/19-12/20 ...
q) then we will have the same set of problems we have now
r) having to move to 2240+ to "make up for lost time"
s) AND DO IT IN A SELLING ZONE...
t) that will trigger yet ANOTHER MASSIVE SELL OFF TO CLOSE THE YEAR...
u) so ?
v) it remains to be seen if price will really do all this
w) bc right now the technical chart look ugly AF and I'm being nice
Trade closed manually:
THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE IS NEXT ONE:
Related Ideas
a) price action very indicative of something we are not expecting...
b) so I am put this up as warning...