Post FOMC and NFP | GOLD Potential Forecast | 5th November 2022
Hi guys! Chern Yu here~
My trading methodology revolves around smart money concepts and liquidity.
This week's data releases from FOMC and NFP gave us plenty of clues as to where price will be headed to.
Fundamental COntext
- FOMC meeting: FED raised interest rates by 75bps.
- Jerome Powell mentioned to increase the terminal rate and seemingly raising rates for a longer period despite saying rate hikes will slow down.
- NFP: prints 261k vs 197k (better than forecast but decreased from last month)
- Unemployment rate: 3.7% vs 3.5% (Rate hikes taking effect, market pricing in the bearish economic outlook for USD)
ALL EYES IS ON CPI PRINT ON 10th NOVEMBER
Forecast
- I believe that next week will be CRUCIAL in telling the direction of price action in GOLD.
- If CPI prints lower and shows it has improved, I anticipate a more risk on environment and USD will depreciate against GOLD or other currencies.
- If CPI prints higher and shows it needs time to get back lower, I believe market will still remain sidelined and USD will still continue to come out the winner. (GOLD appreciates in this case)
I will be giving an update next week so please stay tuned!
It will be an interesting week and there are swing set ups and opportunities waiting on GOLD or EURUSD.
Stay relentless.
My trading methodology revolves around smart money concepts and liquidity.
This week's data releases from FOMC and NFP gave us plenty of clues as to where price will be headed to.
Fundamental COntext
- FOMC meeting: FED raised interest rates by 75bps.
- Jerome Powell mentioned to increase the terminal rate and seemingly raising rates for a longer period despite saying rate hikes will slow down.
- NFP: prints 261k vs 197k (better than forecast but decreased from last month)
- Unemployment rate: 3.7% vs 3.5% (Rate hikes taking effect, market pricing in the bearish economic outlook for USD)
ALL EYES IS ON CPI PRINT ON 10th NOVEMBER
Forecast
- I believe that next week will be CRUCIAL in telling the direction of price action in GOLD.
- If CPI prints lower and shows it has improved, I anticipate a more risk on environment and USD will depreciate against GOLD or other currencies.
- If CPI prints higher and shows it needs time to get back lower, I believe market will still remain sidelined and USD will still continue to come out the winner. (GOLD appreciates in this case)
I will be giving an update next week so please stay tuned!
It will be an interesting week and there are swing set ups and opportunities waiting on GOLD or EURUSD.
Stay relentless.