GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - WEEK 19 - 2024

• XAUUSD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - WEEK 19 - 2024
  

This week, international gold prices have dropped sharply as the Israel-Iran conflict has almost cooled down. Specifically, international gold prices decreased from 2,388 USD/oz to 2,291 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,337 USD/oz.

Notably, the US's basic personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index in March was at 2.8% over the same period last year. This number was unchanged from February, but slightly higher than forecast. Meanwhile, US GDP in the first quarter of 2024 only grew by 1.6%, much lower than the forecast of 2.4% and the lowest level since the second quarter of 2022. US GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 grew by 3.4%.

The above US economic data shows that the US economy is at risk of falling into stagflation, meaning economic growth is stagnant, while inflation is increasing. This will put the FED in a difficult position in operating monetary policy. Because if the FED cuts interest rates to support growth, there is a risk of skyrocketing inflation. On the contrary, if interest rates are kept high for a long time, or even increased to control inflation, there is a risk of pushing the US economy into recession.

Next week, investors will have to pay close attention to economic data including US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for April. If the disappointing NFP jobs report indicates job growth weakening and rising wages, will paint a clearer picture of stagflation. This could push gold prices back up sharply.

In addition, America's public debt has surpassed $34,000 billion, causing the federal government to spend billions of dollars to pay interest every year. This is also the reason why many central banks around the world continue to sell USD to buy gold to diversify foreign exchange reserves and minimize the risk of USD devaluation in the future.

Although the long-term gold price outlook continues to increase, in the short term the price of this precious metal may continue to adjust and accumulate, especially when the FED is still in limbo regarding monetary policy direction. Therefore, if the FED gives clearer direction on monetary policy in the near future, it may have a strong impact on gold prices.

Technically, if next week's gold price trades below 2,300 USD/oz, corresponding to the H4 technical chart, the price breaks the uptrend line, it may cause the gold price to drop even more sharply, the price is expected to drop to about 2,250 - 2,200 USD/oz. On the contrary, if next week's gold price trades above the threshold of 2,300 USD/oz, it will create a push to increase gold prices the following week.

The trading plan for next week will consider selling around 2395, buying around 2220, accepting a stop loss of 5 prices for each turn.

Trade active:

🔔Trading plan for April 30

📉 SELL XAUUSD zone 2358 - 2360. STOPLOSS 2364
📈 BUY XAUUSD zone 2306 - 2304. STOPLOSS 2300

➡️Resistance : 2345 -2355 - 2360 - 2365 -
➡️Support : 2328 - 2313 - 2305 - 2295 - 2288

Scalping stragegies will be applied when the resistance - support areas above have entry signals and there will be specific signals

Note: Full TP and SL to be safe and win the market‼️ Your money, please protect it with me❤️❤️

Comment:

🔔Trading plan for May 1

📉 SELL XAUUSD zone 2325 - 2327. STOPLOSS 2331
📈 BUY XAUUSD zone 2263 - 2261. STOPLOSS 2258

➡️Resistance : : 2294 - 2300 - 2305 - 2314 - 2325
➡️Support : 2274 -2267 - 2260 - 2250 - 2245

Scalping stragegies will be applied when the resistance - support areas above have entry signals and there will be specific signals

Note: Full TP and SL to be safe and win the market‼️ Your money, please protect it with me❤️❤️

Comment: