PATH TO 2135 #4B, NOT REALLY INTERESTING
INTRODUCTION - This is the second 02/06/24, 15-min bar, ultra-detailed daily binary, CONTINUOUS & EVOLVING FORECAST (changes as often as I can update) for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. This is #4, updated with "reconciliation" for all trend charts.
DETAILS - I think the cycles people are mistaken. In my humble opinion, most bearish trends are still setting limitS for how quickly this moves up. We are going to get to 2135 in February, but IT'S REALLY HARD to get past that. So when I force all the trend maps to agree, I still come out 2135. On a good day 2155, and would be sold immediately that day. Wednesday ceiling is 2052, while both Thursday and Friday ceilings are still 2060-2065 and I don't see it moving past it.
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.
DETAILS - I think the cycles people are mistaken. In my humble opinion, most bearish trends are still setting limitS for how quickly this moves up. We are going to get to 2135 in February, but IT'S REALLY HARD to get past that. So when I force all the trend maps to agree, I still come out 2135. On a good day 2155, and would be sold immediately that day. Wednesday ceiling is 2052, while both Thursday and Friday ceilings are still 2060-2065 and I don't see it moving past it.
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.
Comment:
18) bulls can change this by moving to 2060 tomorrow AND HOLDING FLAT ...
19) just like they are doing with 2135 right now
20) REFUSING TO GIVE AN INCH
21) I just don't see that happening tomorrow
22) the bollingers that set the high/low tomorrow have FURIOUSLY COLLAPSING
23) so in the scenario that we hit 2060, it would drop to 45 in 10-15 minutes
19) just like they are doing with 2135 right now
20) REFUSING TO GIVE AN INCH
21) I just don't see that happening tomorrow
22) the bollingers that set the high/low tomorrow have FURIOUSLY COLLAPSING
23) so in the scenario that we hit 2060, it would drop to 45 in 10-15 minutes
Comment:
12:25 AM CONSIDER:
a) in chart above, the 3 dashed lines make up the bollinger for the black wave
b) which will cross the median and push price to 2050+
c) but since the high this morning, this bollinger have been COMPRESSING FURIOUSLY
d) so if price shoots up like that blue line, it's getting shot down 9 out of 10 times
e) so much that I don't think it can resistance at 60 tomorrow
f) BUT IF HITS 60 AND HOLDS IT THE ENTIRE DAY....
g) then we can talk 2080s for Thursday and consider higher Feb-Mar targets
h) otherwise I can't move off 2135 ceiling
i) and that's a wrap for this update until tomorrow AM
b) which will cross the median and push price to 2050+
c) but since the high this morning, this bollinger have been COMPRESSING FURIOUSLY
d) so if price shoots up like that blue line, it's getting shot down 9 out of 10 times
e) so much that I don't think it can resistance at 60 tomorrow
f) BUT IF HITS 60 AND HOLDS IT THE ENTIRE DAY....
g) then we can talk 2080s for Thursday and consider higher Feb-Mar targets
h) otherwise I can't move off 2135 ceiling
i) and that's a wrap for this update until tomorrow AM
Comment:
9:28 am 35.xx, price don't want that route
a) a weaker route with less vol .. I think
b) can't update right now bc prie moving too slow to guess direction
c) all it's saying is it wont move a lot (right now)
a) a weaker route with less vol .. I think
b) can't update right now bc prie moving too slow to guess direction
c) all it's saying is it wont move a lot (right now)
Comment:
3:12 PM, and it didn't move any vs pre open bc its 2034 right now and it was too pre-open.
a) what does that mean now?
b) that MEANS MORE ZIG ZAG
c) OMG...
d) zig zag for Thurs, Fri, Sunday, Monday, and at least half of Tuesday
a) what does that mean now?
b) that MEANS MORE ZIG ZAG
c) OMG...
d) zig zag for Thurs, Fri, Sunday, Monday, and at least half of Tuesday
Comment:
e) so for example:
Comment:
f) in chart above, from NOW TO TUESDAY 02/13 MORNING
g) it will make this same type of of move
h) but about 75% of the time and 85% of the price
i) so, same type, but smaller
j) that's it, see you Friday
g) it will make this same type of of move
h) but about 75% of the time and 85% of the price
i) so, same type, but smaller
j) that's it, see you Friday
Comment:
02/07 8:58 PM Are we doing a sneak breakout? Maybe, but not this week.
a) maybe Monday
b) I mean I have trend maps ready for it
c) but I have had trend maps ready for it 7 times in the last 7 weeks
d) so why would be this different?
e) I don't know, I'm ready to quit gold if this move doesn't happen
f) because I have a life
g) but in the spirit of finishing what I started, I'll draft this move up
a) maybe Monday
b) I mean I have trend maps ready for it
c) but I have had trend maps ready for it 7 times in the last 7 weeks
d) so why would be this different?
e) I don't know, I'm ready to quit gold if this move doesn't happen
f) because I have a life
g) but in the spirit of finishing what I started, I'll draft this move up
Comment:
02/07 11:17 PM ET -- Until I get done with new draft:
1) THIS POST HAS ENDED
2) CONTINUE here a previous #3:
1) THIS POST HAS ENDED
2) CONTINUE here a previous #3:
Comment:
a) once there
b hit replay
c) we are going to get something close to this
d) but maybe a tad stronger on the back end
b hit replay
c) we are going to get something close to this
d) but maybe a tad stronger on the back end
1) hi-lights from #4 were set 8 hours early
2) meaning the move up should be after 8:30 AM ET event time
3) hence the reason for this this post #4B
4) 6 hours ago I really thought gold/yellow route would end up winning Wednesday
5) it's possible, but ITS A MASSIVE UNDER DOG to chart at top
6) the difference between the two is
a) chart at top has 2050 and 2060 for WED-THUR
b) but gold route had 2060 and 2085 for WED-THUR
7) and thats the basis for 2180-2360 hitting in late Feb to early March
8) but the "most bearish trend map" thats now turning bullish...
9) STILL DISAGREE with that WED-THUR being that high
10) so that push 2080-90 into NEXT TUES-WED
11) that's not fast enough to correct intermediate trends
12) so I have those question marks there
13) bc I don't know what happens there
14) but simple logic says it gets shot down one more time before 2135
15) so then that would put very close to 2/23-25 turn date
16) therefore soft ceilling is 2135 and hard ceiling is 2155
17) this can change a bit, but I think past 2170 IMPOSSIBLE at this time